Hot and dry (but with humidity lol) for the next week before we get a rain chance it looks like. There may be a well timed trough to the north and tropical intrusion to the south such that rain develops over the area. I think this could easily disappear but it's about all I have to watch for now. Ensemble mean has PWAT of 2" and good instability for that period so heavy rain and storms may both be possible.

FWIW, the EPS weeklies hint at a CCKW/MJO crossing the Pacific mid-July which could portend a ridgy/+TNH cycle around that time (see hovmoller plot below). Though the theme this year (so far) has been to water these down upon approach, so I’m not confident a western-centric ridge would have much staying power, assuming it comes to fruition in the first place. Overall there is a lot of E-Hem/IO (RMM phases 1-3) forcing this year, so the more likely outcome is a gradual warming w/rt climatology in the west over the next 3 months or so, as the seasonal response to this base state evolves. Very common for August and/or September to finish warmer than average in NW-North America in such regimes, though July less so. But it is still not the same base state as 2021 or 2022 (both were more IPWP centered w/ enhanced off-equator convection east of the dateline). So that kind of flip to +TNH seems less likely this summer.

Of course. 2022 being the exception. That was a crazy evolution from all troughing to no troughing. That won't be happening this year.

Troughs happen up there in July/August too. Climatology warms, but the frequency of troughs doesn’t necessarily change with respect said climatology. It’s just that the result gets warmer.

00Z EPS looks fairly pleasant to me... but there will almost certainly be another significant troughing period during the last weekend of June.