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fubario

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Everything posted by fubario

  1. Right. Weather forecasting is HARD! Even for the people who go to school for it. I'm just saying I think there's value in paying attention to these folks...that's all.
  2. No insult intended to contributors like yourself who know your sh**. I just don't see much attention given to our NWS peeps...that's all.
  3. Call me a heretic...but I'm prone to paying some attention to the people who actually make a living at doing this stuff. 9:25AM NWS SEATTLE/TACOMA, WA LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...The active pattern continues through the middle of next week, potentially turning much colder and more wintry even across the lowlands by the end of the workweek. Additional shortwave energy looks to move through the backside of the longwave trough Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping widespread precipitation over the region. Confidence is lower in exactly how deep the trough and associated cold air will dig across the Pacific Northwest through this time, with the consensus remaining unchanged for a prolonged heavy snowfall event for the Cascades and passes. Long-range ensemble mean and the NBM both bring storm total snowfall of up to several feet over the Cascades by Thursday morning, which will make travel difficult to dangerous at times. Snow levels remain above 1000 feet through Wednesday, which will keep precipitation mostly in the form of rain over the lowlands, with the exception possibly being western Whatcom and Skagit Counties where colder air will filter in from the north first. As previously mentioned, a large degree of uncertainty remains in timing and placement of moisture with these shortwaves in relation to the push of cold air with a sub-Arctic front that pushes southward out of British Columbia during the Wednesday night into Thursday timeframe. General consensus is for the best chances for lowland snow is mostly Thursday into Friday after this front pushes southward into Western Washington. Greatest snowfall totals and probability for accumulating lowland snow continues to be north of Seattle across northwestern Snohomish County and western Whatcom and Skagit Counties. Here are current 72-hour period snowfall probabilities across the lowlands ending 4 PM Friday: * 75-85% chance of greater than 0.1" of snow * 50-60% chance of greater than 1" of snow * 20-30% chance of greater than 4" of snow (10-15% from Everett to Seattle Southward.) * 5-10% chance of greater than 8" of snow (<5% from Everett to Seattle Southward.) We continue to monitor the potential for extreme cold late next week, with growing confidence for at least the coldest temperatures thus far this winter season as a strong Arctic surface high noses southward east of the Canadian Rockies. Uncertainty continues in how far south and west of this high the core of the cold air digs. The temperature gradient is likely to be quite large along this front, regardless of how far south it makes it through the end of the week. NBM probability for low temperatures below 20F Thursday night, Friday night, and Saturday night is roughly around 50%. And the probability for lows in the single digits is around 20% during this time, obviously lower for locations immediately along waterfronts.
  4. I was on a domestic flight many years ago where more than one person was caught smoking in the lav. When the plane landed the cops came on board and took them away. Turned out they were from Russia and apparently didn't know that not smoking in an airplane lav was 'a thing'. lol
  5. Straight talk....don't think i've ever seen such a sustained moderate rain ...for this long since i've been in the PNW (23 years).
  6. As the resident Ram's fan...here are my takes on last night's game: Seahawks got jobbed by the refs....Witherspoon is an All Pro....Pete Carroll is gum chewing crybaby....fire the Seahawk OC. P.S. I was zero years old today when i learned Yelm HS nickname are the Tornadoes. lol
  7. In these scenarios, I like to imagine the forum reaction if it were reversed - ridge to sudden troughing. It would probably be dismissed by most as a "blip" and "let's see if the next run shows the same thing". When it's trough to sudden ridge...it's "it's over!". Just, funny. Also, curious about what the sudden model changes mean, other than "uncertainty" . I guess i'd be more pessimistic if it showed a gradual shift than a 180 degree change? But, what do i know. lol
  8. Pretty sure there's only "one downside" if Yellowstone pops off. lol
  9. Is that the place where they pump your gas for you?
  10. Here are my weekend's sports takes.....the U of O coach is an idiot.....and, it's always a nice Sunday for Rams fans like myself when our team wins and the Whiners and Seahawks lose. P.S. - F the Astros
  11. They'll never trade Vlad...or any of the young core. Maybe they add Bellinger in the offseason?
  12. I'm in Toronto currently. Jay's fans are absolutely gutted. Swept 3 of 4 years. They had even higher expectations than M's this year. Bats dried up against Twins. Vlad a no show. Another long offseason for them...and the M's.
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