OKwx2k4

@Iceresistance, Thanks for the shoutout on the warm sector over here. Looking like a tense night for me. Tornadic storm in Sequoyah County now.

The rest of Autumn. Supply chain issues held up the last part...lol. It's quite nice up here.

Enjoying the warm break, but all is in line with my thoughts and will be braced and excited for winter's return. Winter's "peak" here is usually late January-very early February. In my studies this morning, my only real thoughts were, "Do we go 1983-1984's route with the short January punch? Or do we go with the long-haul, lockdown cold?" There's a "Gulf-punch" in our pattern which, if well-timed, could smash everyone from me to the northeast. If everything lines up right, bang. Real winter is only a few days old. Pretty exciting. Happy New Year everyone!! You are an amazing community of unique and wonderful friends, enthusiasts and just a genuinely great group of people!!

I'm pulling for Nebraska to get clobbered. They've earned it.

I miss buying their stuff and watching their videos every day. I haven't in awhile because of bad and boring winters. I love what those guys do because they are not in the least bit afraid to reach out and teach what they do so that people can love it like we all do.

If euro fades to the GFS solution, while it (gfs) continues evolving in a southerly direction, then this storm is going to be awesome. That was a great write-up posted. The euro showed snow first this far south and then varied wildly if i recall right. I agree that the euro doesn't look right now.

Its like the 1983-84 reload style. What a pattern. What a season so far and someone's going to get absolutely smashed before this season is done, if not a lot of us.

Wondering if the ENSO warming west of 180 is going to pump the southern side up as we head through the season. May be partial credit in there for finally seeing this ridge break down and shift away to the west finally. Seeing the Pacific roar with well placed storms is a huge plus per the "BSR".

I appreciate the thorough technical breakdown of the run there friend. Go ahead and tell us how you really feel about it. That's too funny. Also, "How I have felt about every winter for 7 years."

See! I get in this dang emotional snowllercoaster too! Haha! I love it! Thing with a storm you can guess at with pattern recognition from huge range, it feels like we've been watching this storm a month already.

I'd like to order a number 3 with a number 7 and 9 please. Thanks!

I didn't know that. Pretty cool! We have a pretty neat collection of Okies piling up on here now. Awesome!

Its getting bad when okies and texans are feeling sorry for snowless Nebraska. I stand corrected. No complaints here!

I need enso to heat up before i get a s branch storm that matters. What a waste. -2 on .5 of snow is annoying for nothing.

Woof woof. It's still there...

I smack talk them too and call them the old school names. We all still somewhere call them "clown maps" in our hearts. Lol. At one point, we were all the clowns posting them too and learning. "Clown range" is another term loosely referring to anything after 7-10 days most of the time or knowing, like someone said, should have a disclaimer with them saying, "NOT POSSIBLE" on them. Lol.

Just punch that ticket for me one time. Please.

I very likely got my years wrong. Look like we might see a good string of energy pieces roll thru from end of this week throughout Christmas after everyone uo there gets blasted. I thought the cold snowy December here was 2000, but it might've been 2002. Seeing snow in all 50 states at one time would be pretty special right before Christmas.

Excited to see reruns showing up of what looks like a "Blitz 2000" scenario.

Has to take a huge photographic/numerical memory to do what he (Bastardi) and JD have been doing for the last several years now. Calling the trifecta winters of 2009-10, 10-11 and 2011-12 was off the charts crazy, and absolutely right on. Same with Sandy off a storm analog from goodness knows where and when ago. When someone discovers how to combine all three parts and break away from dependency on climate modeling to do smaller scale patterning; (when its largely known now that there are many historical climate events they cannot replicate. Documented case being the 1976-1979 climate shift, and dust bowl event contrasted with 2019-22s dual drought in the plains and california and into the desert sw.))....there will be a more solid base of forecasters using real experience with their model use the way these guys do. I think "relocalizing" weather offices or decentralizing them to people/observer/forecasters would actually make things better. A blend of the old-school and new. Examples being, we have known the GFS's biases going on 15 plus years now on the hobby driven expert level even. With enough to hedge them outside 4 days. They don't ever fix them. Same with euro.... These guys still grow and tune their skills off real stuff. Another two old-school guys that deserve mention are Jim Flowers and Larry Cosgrove. They have brought a great deal to weather forecasting in the last 2 decades.

Ywah. December definitely is looking like a second-half team kind of month. Lock it down and let it roll. Winter is back.

That was a pretty special November run! Hope you enjoyed it.

If you extrapolate day 10 of Euro with days 11-15 of GFS and mix what we already know about this pattern, December 2000 is very accurate for where we are in my opinion. We go right back into cross-polar flow one way or the other.

Glad to see you getting some more enjoyable weather in!

Also, @MIKEKC and @Clinton... Gary has changed the way a whole region views longer term weather forecasting and short-term cycles for a generation. That's pretty remarkable. I rank him with Joe Bastardi as probably the top two "radical" weatherguys I admire still doing the work with love and enthusiasm today. I know there are mixed opinions on Bastardi, but these folks also are aware they have that effect on people. Lol.