Icewoz

Amazing how they predict cold air so well

Rain for Detroit?

Interesting wording from DTX in this afternoon’s discussion: “A strong southwesterly warm air advection pattern is then expected to develop for the end of the week. Uncertainty exists on when precipitation chances will increase as Southeast Michigan could find itself favorably in a downstream ridge for a time with plenty of dry air. Currently the forecast is very broadbrushed with the PoPs and carries a risk to mischaracterize a narrative ahead of the actual upper level low.”

Royal Oak here....like they say, if it sounds too good to be true, it is. We will either get warm air here and a mix or dry-slotted like usual.

I'm with you. Last good storm I remember I think was 1978.

DTX is being low-key as well, which they should be. You don't want to "cry wolf" everytime something shows up that can be decided on with more information later. It seems every storm this year moving through the country has been portrayed as "the storm of the century" by the media for some reason. Focus then turns towards the potential for a impactful winter storm to affect the central Great Lakes. Confidence remains high for widespread precipitation moving into southeast Michigan starting Friday morning and continuing through Friday night/Saturday morning. This system will emerge from a Pacific wave with the 500 mb trough diving through the Four Corners region on Thursday with a 140 knot upper jet rounding the base. Associated surface low pressure strengthens as it lifts into IL and is forecast to track just south of the CWA or right along the southern MI border. This places southeast Michigan in a favorable spot for potentially several inches of accumulating snow, which is supported by the ensemble spread. However, the swath of highest snowfall totals still remains sensitive to the exact track of the low. Thermal profiles also offer a chance for a wintry mix during a portion of this event, but confidence in ptypes is too low this far out to nail down exact details. Be sure to stay up to date with the forecast as details become more clear on this potential major winter storm.

You think like me!!! Lol

GRR has been hinting to this the past couple of days, but this morning they've decided against it: "In terms of a potential late week system it is noted that both 00Z deterministic gfs and ecmwf guidance has trended much further se with the system. Forecast confidence that far out in time is low given an enormous spread in 00Z ecmwf and gefs ensemble low locations by then. 00Z gefs ensembles do show a bit more potential for a system to move through the lower OH valley region by around next Friday but the spread in low locations is large. Therefore it is looking much more doubtful that a major low pressure system will impact our region late next week."

Hopefully we get some decent storms.

Lame storm yet again.

Same here in Royal Oak...unless it's worse farther up north of Detroit. Windshields are iced over but I was out with the dog and was able to walk. Seems like it was more sleet than freezing rain. There's a stop sign in front of my house and cars don't seem to be sliding around. I know I'm more on the border of the warmer air here so that could account for a lot (although my weather station IMBY is saying it's 30 out).

About an hour of sleet and rain in Royal Oak. Windshields are ice but the streets look fine. Everything has stopped now.

I'm in the far SE corner of Oakland County so I doubt we'll see much from this. Way to close to the warm air. Darn it.

Like I always say, decrease whatever the models say by 3/4ths and you have a good approximation of what is going to happen.

That’s why I take all of this with a grain of salt.

DTX is the voice of reason. Just wish media outlets could understand and translate the information correctly. Today`s model cycle continues temporal consistency with the bulk features of the southern Plains system as it migrates into the mid MS valley during Wednesday. Opted to go ahead with a Winter Storm Watch with this forecast issuance given the potential magnitude of the icing event. The lead time is a bit longer than usual, especially for a mixed precip event, and carries risk of substantial forecast changes but is offset by the potential for a high end icing event somewhere in southern Lower MI. The Watch starts a framework within which we can then shuffle around precipitation type and amounts in upcoming forecasts. Today`s forecast cycle still depicts surface temperature trends toward the Ohio border counties as the greatest source of uncertainty on the southward extent of freezing rain potential. Lenawee and Monroe counties are not in the Watch but are expected to be in a Winter Weather Advisory time window later Wednesday and Wednesday night. Locations farther north, especially toward the northern Detroit suburbs to I-69, have a chance to be more firmly in subfreezing air overlapped by high precipitation rate. The range of model soundings broadly suggest an all snow start is possible in this area followed by a lengthy period of sleet before changing to freezing rain. The key will be persistence of precipitation coverage and intensity which tend to verify in a more scattered pattern when a convective component develops. The Tri Cities and northern Thumb then stand the best chance to hold all snow but with intervals of sleet and freezing rain also possible. Exceedance of warning criteria accumulation/icing is play for all areas in the Watch but with substantial north to south adjustments possible as assessments of the surface cold layer strength and northward progress of the warm nose are refined in later updates. The one trend showing up in today`s forecast cycle is a farther north solution on the surface low during Thursday preceded by the broad mid level dry slot. Guidance POPs appear too high for too long Thursday as the dry slot surges in likely reducing precip to drizzle or freezing drizzle before temperatures rise above freezing most area in the afternoon. The continued northward trend on surface low carries it into central Lower MI Thursday evening followed by strong cold front Thursday night. Temperature guidance indicates single digit low temperatures possible by Friday morning

My philosophy is cut these models down by 3/4. That’s usually realty. It always looks worse than it is 2 days out.

Detroit area peeps, don’t get too excited about this storm…here it is…huge, informative right up by DTX only to be ended with this paragraph: Forecaster Reasoning 000 FXUS63 KDTX 192057 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 357 PM EST “A notable trend shows up in today`s data for the late week period. A more aggressive dry slot over southern Lower MI could shorten the event by Thursday morning along with a farther north surface low position in Lower MI in the afternoon. This also keeps deformation snow farther north in the Great Lakes”

Can’t wait for the hype in Detroit … for nothing.

Boring yet again for DTX

Was thinking the same thing. So we got about 6” of wet snow just north of Detroit a few days ago. Where is this “active” pattern for the beginning of February? If you’re turned on by flurries and maybe an inch or two of snow…well…I’ll stop there, lol. Give me a storm to remember. Otherwise it’s just child’s play!!!

Glad to know there is someone else that feels the way I do. I've secured some things around the house just to "play-it-safe"., but SEMI just doesn't get any notable weather like other parts of the country. We've had many windy days over the past few years, which is something new that's been happening (and nothing really severe as far as winds go but enough to be noted) so I'm continuing with all of the plans I've had in place for Friday and Saturday because we've gone through this hype before. My rule is, look at the models when they first come out and reduce that intensity by 75-80% and that's what you'll get.