Icewoz

Amazing how they predict cold air so well

Rain for Detroit?

Interesting wording from DTX in this afternoon’s discussion: “A strong southwesterly warm air advection pattern is then expected to develop for the end of the week. Uncertainty exists on when precipitation chances will increase as Southeast Michigan could find itself favorably in a downstream ridge for a time with plenty of dry air. Currently the forecast is very broadbrushed with the PoPs and carries a risk to mischaracterize a narrative ahead of the actual upper level low.”

Royal Oak here....like they say, if it sounds too good to be true, it is. We will either get warm air here and a mix or dry-slotted like usual.

I'm with you. Last good storm I remember I think was 1978.

DTX is being low-key as well, which they should be. You don't want to "cry wolf" everytime something shows up that can be decided on with more information later. It seems every storm this year moving through the country has been portrayed as "the storm of the century" by the media for some reason. Focus then turns towards the potential for a impactful winter storm to affect the central Great Lakes. Confidence remains high for widespread precipitation moving into southeast Michigan starting Friday morning and continuing through Friday night/Saturday morning. This system will emerge from a Pacific wave with the 500 mb trough diving through the Four Corners region on Thursday with a 140 knot upper jet rounding the base. Associated surface low pressure strengthens as it lifts into IL and is forecast to track just south of the CWA or right along the southern MI border. This places southeast Michigan in a favorable spot for potentially several inches of accumulating snow, which is supported by the ensemble spread. However, the swath of highest snowfall totals still remains sensitive to the exact track of the low. Thermal profiles also offer a chance for a wintry mix during a portion of this event, but confidence in ptypes is too low this far out to nail down exact details. Be sure to stay up to date with the forecast as details become more clear on this potential major winter storm.

You think like me!!! Lol

GRR has been hinting to this the past couple of days, but this morning they've decided against it: "In terms of a potential late week system it is noted that both 00Z deterministic gfs and ecmwf guidance has trended much further se with the system. Forecast confidence that far out in time is low given an enormous spread in 00Z ecmwf and gefs ensemble low locations by then. 00Z gefs ensembles do show a bit more potential for a system to move through the lower OH valley region by around next Friday but the spread in low locations is large. Therefore it is looking much more doubtful that a major low pressure system will impact our region late next week."

Hopefully we get some decent storms.

Lame storm yet again.

Same here in Royal Oak...unless it's worse farther up north of Detroit. Windshields are iced over but I was out with the dog and was able to walk. Seems like it was more sleet than freezing rain. There's a stop sign in front of my house and cars don't seem to be sliding around. I know I'm more on the border of the warmer air here so that could account for a lot (although my weather station IMBY is saying it's 30 out).

About an hour of sleet and rain in Royal Oak. Windshields are ice but the streets look fine. Everything has stopped now.

I'm in the far SE corner of Oakland County so I doubt we'll see much from this. Way to close to the warm air. Darn it.

Like I always say, decrease whatever the models say by 3/4ths and you have a good approximation of what is going to happen.

That’s why I take all of this with a grain of salt.