Phil

That warm water actually helps, if anything. It takes a serious moisture source (like warm Gulf Stream waters) to drop 2-3 feet of snow in a subfreezing airmass. Cold airmasses can't hold that much water..it has to be continuously advected in. There aren't many places capable of pulling it off.

Canadian has 30" just north of Philly according to the Kuchara methodology. Sick.

So far, 00z models are amazing. Need the Euro to come back to the party, though. Snippet of the 00z CMC..epic: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/271D5BDF-19AC-4A11-9C55-8E0A816667C5_zpskvvbj3hp.png

Last year's blizzard was a Miller-A. Those are usually easier to predict and perform well. This is a true Miller-B, which are much harder to predict, more unstable, and can vastly overperform even same-day expectations, or can also bust completely. The 2/10/10 storm was a Miller-B that unexpectedly went nuclear right over us with an early phase, dropping 2ft of snow in areas forecast to receive only 6-10". Either way, you can't feel comfortable until you're within 36-48hrs when it comes to these Miller-Bs.

I'm leaning neutral still. The modoki niña Walker/Hadley Cell ratio isn't something you typically see preceding a Niño, so I'm skeptical we manage anything more than a weak Niño next winter. Also, the aforementioned modoki Niña circulation does favor a warm season anticyclonic train/western trough during M/J/J.

Fred went from 28" on the 00z to 6" on the 12z. This is why MillerA > MillerB evolutions 90% of the time.

Euro shifted way east..I'm okay here but N/W gets screwed..I'm riding the edge. Need a more amped/NW solution.

What I wouldn't give to live 75 miles NE right now. These MillerB evolutions w/ the coastal redevelopment are often a problem for us here in DC. Most notable exception being the monster blizzard on 2/10/10.

00z ECMWF buries Fred.. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/32052189-A08D-48C8-A984-E157E39E7E38_zpsrgglmz0o.png

Everyone is bearish..happens a lot after crappy winters.

Yesterday afternoon it was 71 degrees, so it was somewhat surprising to wake up to sticking snow this morning. A few of the squalls have been pretty heavy, actually.

Euro is a nuke. So is the UKMET.

CMC whiffs to the south. Ordinarily I wouldn't care but it was the first to recognize the south miss for Sunday's storm.

Haha, 06z GFS puts an 85kt LLJ and monster UVVs right over Fred's head on Tuesday. Verbatim, with dynamics like that we're talking about a period of 4-6"/hr rates and 60-70mph winds well inland.

Snowing this morning..it was 70+ degrees 18hrs ago.

4900ft > 3100ft.

00z GFS is even deeper/further west. Nukes Fred.

Tough, as there are many climates I'd love to experience, but I have to go with Snowshoe, WV. There's just no other place quite like it. Average snowfall is ~ 200", frequent severe weather, strong winds that surpass 60mph over 50 days per year, cool summers on par with those in northern Michigan, evergreen forests, and beautiful views that span over 50 miles in all directions during clear weather. Literally an island in the sky at 4900ft. They also catch the brunt of summer derecho events, being on the western/upslope side of the mountains. Hard to beat that.

Looks like a good workout.

High was 70 degrees today. Could be snowing tomorrow evening. #march

Not a cloud in the sky today. Might be nice at this time of year, but once the humidity starts increasing it becomes nightmarish.

I'll be in FL between the 15th and the 20th, so count on it.

Gonna be a rough summer for you.

This is not true. http://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/COP21_8.png

Going to be quite a few touch-ups after this one, yeah. The mid February event literally blew cars out of their parking spots at Montgomery Mall.