Phil

Equinox, sorry. #brainfart

Global temps have crashed...coldest (anomaly) since early 2012, on NCDC: http://www.climate4you.com/images/NCDC%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif Steady on RSS, colder than the start of 2013: http://climate4you.com/images/MSU%20RSS%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif

Next winter should surprise everyone, coast to coast. I'll elaborate later..but it looks like things are gonna get exciting over the next 5 years.. Still doing my research though..just a disclaimer.

Winter just refuses to give up..we're almost at the solstice..lol.. http://catchmypicture.com/f/9djSja/800.jpg

Ugh, long range GEFS.. If this continues through Spring I'm gonna pop my lid http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-455-0-02281600-1395010283.gif

The "super-Niño" hype continues..

Bingo. Larger, weaker, and at a more poleward latitude. Yes, they will, with rapid changes beginning from 2016-2018..

Yep. Essentially, the poleward migration of the Hadley cells is the culprit for the SW US drought.

I feel I need to make a public apology to Richard. I'm going through a lot right now, and I let my anger get in the way of common sense. I'll be "suspending" myself from posting in this thread for the next week while I handle the problems I'm facing.

If you think this is bad, research the two recent mega-droughts that affected the SW US. The last one occurred about 1000 years ago, with an even bigger one 2000yrs ago. These blow away anything witnessed in the modern era. Notice, both of these droughts coincide with warm periods, hence poleward oriented Hadley Cells.

Things could change. The atmosphere/external forcings actually govern the oceans, though they both (oceans/atmosphere) work within the boundaries of one another, as a fully coupled system. Tropical SSTs are one of many factors that affect tropical convection/the Hadley Cells. As the latest peer reviewed literature has found, ENSO can be fully explained via solar, geomagnetic, QBO, and SAO forcings, which seem to govern the tropical circulations/MJO period frequency, hence ENSO. That method has worked very well for me.

We're almost certainly in for a Niño, but it'll end up as either weak or moderate. Top analog for 2014-15 is 1957-58, despite that one being a strong Niño. ECMWF tries to push the Walker cell a bit farther east, hence: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

Sigh... I digress. If western were still open, this would be over quickly.

Seriously? If western were still up I'm pretty sure I could dig up hundreds of posts claiming a Niño for 2012-13. I spent so many hours debating that with you it drove me insane. Again, no disrespect intended, but I know I'm not crazy.

No offense, but he was predicting a moderate El Niño for 2012-13, onward. Unless you're referring to west-coast specific weather?

I think it has something to due with the weakening heliospheric magnetic field. In the past, increased sitings of noctilucent clouds preceded significant global cooling episodes, so there is a relationship, IMO.

Yep it was very 1994-ish, with the main PV sitting over the Hudson Bay. If that PV were 1000-1500 miles west, you'd have a foot of snow on the ground right now. That would've required forcing for an easterly -NAO/-EPO, rather than the +NAO.

Input a time-range first: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_daterange&daterange=Year

Very impressive cold since January 1st: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_daterange&daterange=Year.gif To think this was accomplished with a +NAM base..

Why else would I be up at 3AM?

Yes. I think the degree of separation is key.

Can you elaborate, please, without the unnecessarily long, drawn out, jumbled, incoherent sentences? l No disrespect intended.

Very nicely done. Speaking of reading, interesting article: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/coast-guard-warns-bad-ice-atlantic-canada-ships-173704122.html Plenty of ice all around after the anemic melt of 2013. The NW passage should remain blocked for a long time, now that ice over 15ft thick has been blown in: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2014031218_2014031000_038_arcticictn.001.gif

Exactly, it's no longer enjoyable.. My heating bills are something out of a horror movie. The insane cold led to the bursting of 3 pipes leading into my house back in January. No birds or signs of life. My daughter has been fighting pneumonia for a month, and the cold isn't helping that. Last night we were slammed with wind gusts reaching 72mph and 4" of snow as temps fell to 0 degrees yet again. Ordinarily I'd love that..

Haha, ya think? I've had a brutal, stressful, wired, crazy, hectic, out-of-control week..so I'm probably not done lousing up.