PRISM

Thought this might interest the group:

Hi all: It has been about 2 years since I last posted to the forum. During this period I retired and moved to Santa Fe and now to Cheyenne from Portland, OR. Anyway, I have created a lot of cool time lapse videos Astro-photographs: http://www.astrobin.com/users/NightSky/ and my collection of Northern Lights Photos: http://latitude64photos.com like this: http://vimeo.com/136069744/ that you might enjoy. Anyway, I hope to contribute when something interesting weatherwise or otherwise happens. Regards, PRISM

looks like NOAA CPC is going for enhanced monsoons: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_prcp.gif

Looks like we will miss next Monday night's total lunar eclipse (14-15 April)! http://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/lunar/2014-april-15

All: I have posted my latest report which comes out late Thursday mornings: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/drought/dmrpt-20140403.pdf that summarizes current weather, snowpack, and drought conditions in a one-stop shopping format. PRISM summary maps are also highlighted in the report. For previous reports, see http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/water/drought/wdr.pl (archived - PDFs only in 2014) Thanks,

I captured this nova as seen in the following images: https://www.flickr.com/photos/106472508@N06/12173176305/ http://www.astrobin.com/78135/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/106472508@N06/12153757103/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/106472508@N06/12139358703/

Seems like the hype is making its rounds: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/strong-el-nino-may-be-materializing.html

All: Have you seen this: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/ Storms to hit Pacific NW 26-30 March.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The synoptic scale in meteorology (also known as large scale or cyclonic scale) is a horizontal length scale of the order of 1000 kilometres (about 620 miles) or more.[1] This corresponds to a horizontal scale typical of mid-latitude depressions (e.g. extratropical cyclones). Most high and low-pressure areas seen on weather maps such as surface weather analyses are synoptic-scale systems, driven by the location of Rossby waves in their respective hemisphere. Low-pressure areas and their related frontal zones occur on the leading edge of a trough within the Rossby wave pattern, while surface highs form on the back edge of the trough. Most precipitation areas occur near frontal zones. The word synoptic is derived from the Greek word συνοπτικός (synoptikos), meaning seen together. BTW, I met Rossby's son in the late 1970s while he was gathering weather data in the F.G.G.E. (First GARP Global Experiment): http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jjp9201.pdf in the Indian Ocean, based from Diego Garcia while I was Meteorologist In Charge of the Navy weather detachment there.

Four-Corner State Interests: Interesting that the latest NMME and IMME seasonal and monthly mean forecasts for April to October 2014 are now available at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ are suggesting a rather active SW Summer Monsoon. This trend continues from last month’s run. It will be interesting to see if NOAA's CPC upgrades their June-July-August precipitation forecasts from EC to above with this Thursday's Seasonal Outlook update: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NMME_ensemble_prate_us_season3.png

All: You might not be aware of this excellent summary of the weather pattern (e.g. indexes) after the facts: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/synoptic/2014/2 Note: This Synoptic Discussion describes recent weather events and climate anomalies in relation to the phenomena that cause the weather. These phenomena include the jet stream, fronts and low pressure systems that bring precipitation, high pressure systems that bring dry weather, and the mechanisms which control these features — such as El Niño, La Niña, and other oceanic and atmospheric drivers (PNA, NAO, AO, and others). The report may contain more technical language than other components of the State of the Climate series. Goes back to 2011 by month.

The Monthly Western Snowpack and Water Supply Forecast Report has also been posted to the NWCC homepage in MS Word and Adobe Acrobat formats at the following address: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnowsummary.pl

During the past several years, the frequency of zodiac lights and noctilucent clouds have been increasing for observers in the mid-latitudes. Here is an example of the ZL I captured near Santa Fe, NM last year: http://www.astrobin.com/81543/. Both phenomena occur in the upper reaches of the atmosphere where meteor vapor and ice crystals reflect sunlight. Could it be that the globle temperature pause of the past 15 years or so is related to this potential blocking of incoming solar radiation in the upper atmosphere? Food for thought.

All: I thought that some of you might be interested in this careeer opportunity: Our team is growing! The State Climate Office of North Carolina at NC State University is seeking qualified applicants for a new Climatologist position. This scientist will contribute to the extension, research, and outreach mission of the State Climate Office of North Carolina and will specifically work to support and enhance the development of climate data analysis tools and technologies. This scientist will also help support the community outreach effort of the program through climate science communications, including visual, written, and oral communication. Required Qualifications: This position requires B.S. degree in climatology, geography, atmospheric science, or related discipline, or equivalent experience. An M.S. degree in these or related field is preferred. Preferred Qualifications: Include demonstrated experience developing decision support tools using technologies such as MySQL, PHP, and GIS, as well as demonstrated capabilities for effective visual, written, and oral communication of climate data and climate science concepts. To Apply: Applications should be submitted online at https://jobs.ncsu.edu/postings/34120 Please include a cover letter, curriculum vita, and the names and contact information of three professional references. Inquiries may be directed to Dr. Ryan Boyles, Director, State Climate Office of N.C., 919-513-2816, or ryan_boyles@ncsu.edu. About NC State: NC State is an EEO/AA employer, in addition NC State welcomes all persons without regard to sexual orientation. For ADA accommodations, please contact our employment team via email (employment@ncsu.edu) or phone, 919-515-2135 __________________________________ Ryan Boyles Director State Climate Office of North Carolina NC State University Raleigh, NC 27695-7236 919-513-2816 http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/

The February 1, 2014 Water Supply Index (WSI) and Bulletin 120 (B120) forecasts. The forecasts include observed conditions through the end of January. The forecasts are posted at: WSI: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/iodir/wsi B120: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/iodir?s=b120 Forecast Summary: The projected median April-July runoff in the major Sierra river basins ranges from 14 percent on the Tule River to 55 percent on the Pit River. Forecasted median Water Year runoff ranges from 16 percent for the Tule River to 43 percent for the Total Inflow to Shasta Lake. These first 4 months of this water year have been persistently dry, but remember California climate has also been persistently variable too. The WSI forecast can be summarized as follows: Sacramento River Unimpaired Runoff Water Year Forecast 6.2 MAF (50 percent exceedance) (34 percent of normal) Sacramento Valley Index (SVI) 3.7 (50 percent exceedance) (Critical) San Joaquin Valley Index (SJI) 1.1 (75 percent exceedance) (Critical) Runoff: The low flows this winter are a true reflection of the lack of storm systems moving through California. Monthly Flows from October through January have not exceeded 82 percent of normal for any forecasted river. During January, no major Sierra rivers flowed at a rate greater than 45 percent of normal and the statewide average was 8 percent. The January flows in the Sacramento River, San Joaquin River and Tulare Lake regions were 13, 6 and 7 percent of average, respectively. Precipitation: Water Year 2013 -14 continues the persistent dry pattern. The Northern Sierra 8-Station Precipitation has been equal to or less than 25 percent of the monthly average for all months excluding October which was 27% of normal. January only added 1.2 inches of precipitation to the 8-Station total which amounts to just 13% of the historic monthly average. The 4.5 inches recorded by the end of January in the Northern Sierra represents 17 percent of average to date and 9 percent of the average Water Year total. This seasonal total-to-date is the all time driest October through January since 1921. The San Joaquin region is also behaving the same as the Sacramento with the same persistent dry pattern. The San Joaquin 5-Station Index was equal to or less than 22 percent of the monthly average for all months excluding October which was 45% of normal. January added 1.7 inches of precipitation to the 5-Station Index (a half an inch greater than the Northern Sierra). This represents just 22% of the historic monthly average. The 4.7 inches of precipitation recorded by the end of January in the San Joaquin region represents 23 percent of average to date and 12 percent of the average Water Year total. This annual total is the 3rd driest October through January since 1905. At the conclusion of the first four months of the water year, precipitation (based on all available reporting gages per basin) in the Sacramento River Region was 15 percent of average to date, the San Joaquin River Region was 21 percent of average to date, and the Tulare Lake Region was 24 percent of average to date. Statewide, water year cumulative precipitation through January was 20 percent of average to date. The Statewide cumulative precipitation through January was 10 percent of the historic water year average. Snowpack: Snowpack is monitored using two complementary methods: automatic snow sensor (or “pillow”) readings and manual snow course measurements. The snow sensors give us a daily snapshot of snow conditions while the manual snow course measurements provide a monthly verification of snow conditions in locations where snow has been measured in the same manner as far back as 100 years. On February 1, snow sensors recorded a snow pack that was 5 percent of average in the Northern Sierra, 17 percent of average in the Central Sierra, and 20 percent of average in the Southern Sierra. Statewide, snow water equivalent based on snow pillow data was 14 percent of the historical February 1 average and 9 percent of the historical statewide April 1 average. Results from the 209 snow courses measured this month revealed a shallow snow pack with small, non-continuous areas of coverage. Measurements in the Sacramento River Valley watersheds recorded a snow pack that is 5 percent of the historical February 1 average. Measurements in the San Joaquin Valley watersheds indicated a snow pack that is 11 percent of the February 1 average while the snow pack for the Tulare Lake region was 12 percent of the February 1 average. Statewide the snow pack was measured at 9 percent of the February 1 average and 6 percent of the historical April 1 average. These measurements set the record for the driest statewide February 1 snowpack since World War II when the bulk of the existing snow course network was in place. There were 55 snow courses which had no snow water content available to be reported, while two courses could not be accessed via their normal means of transportation (snowmobile or ATV) because of the conditions within the watershed. Several snow survey crews visited snow courses more than once to report the latest gains in the snow pack which came around February 1st. Weather and Climate Outlook: After a dry October through January period, storms have arrived this February. For the next six days storms track primarily across the northern third of the state. For some areas of the North Coast beginning tomorrow nearly 7 inches has been forecasted while up to 3.5 inches have been forecasted for the Upper Sacramento watershed. Unfortunately, only a half an inch is forecasted for the Lower Sacramento and only trace amounts are forecasted for the San Joaquin watershed. Over the Northern Sierra, the freezing levels will be at their lowest today, 7000 feet, and increase through Friday. Current freezing levels are near 9000 feet over the central and Southern Sierra. Rising freezing levels are expected through Friday. The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) one-month outlook for February, last updated on January 31, 2014, suggests increased chances of above normal temperatures for California. The only exception is a sliver of Northern California ranging from Redding northward with equal chances of above or below average temperatures. The same outlook predicts increased chances of below normal precipitation ranging from Sacramento southward. The portion of California north of Sacramento is predicted to have equal chances of above or below average precipitation. The CPC’s three-month outlook (February through April), last updated on January 16, 2014, suggests increased chances of above normal temperatures for all of California. The same outlook predicts increased chances of below normal precipitation for California with the exception of the corner near Oregon and Nevada with equal chances of above or below average precipitation. Next Update: A Bulletin 120 Update for conditions on February 11 will be available Thursday, February 13. The March 1, 2014 Bulletin 120 and Water Supply Index forecasts will be available on March 10, 2014. If you have any questions regarding this forecast, please contact a member of the Snow Surveys staff. We are happy to help. Snow Surveys Staff Contact Information: Dave Rizzardo, Chief (david.rizzardo@water.ca.gov) 916-574-2983 John King (john.j.king@water.ca.gov) 916-574-2637 Steve Nemeth (stephen.nemeth@water.ca.gov) 916-574-2634 Andy Reising (andrew.reising@water.ca.gov) 916-574-2181 Sean de Guzman (sean.deguzman@water.ca.gov) 916-574-2208 Richard Mora (richard.mora@water.ca.gov) 916-574-2636 Important Links Full Natural Flow Data: Daily FNF http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snowsurvey_ro/FNF Monthly FNF http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snowsurvey_ro/FNFSUM Seasonal FNF http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snowsurvey_ro/FLOWOUT Precipitation Data: Latest Northern Sierra 8-Station Precipitation Index http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryDaily?s=8SI&d=today Northern Sierra 8-Station Precipitation Tabulation Table http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/8-Stations_Tab.pdf Latest San Joaquin 5-Station Precipitation Index http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryDaily?s=5SI&d=today San Joaquin 5-Station Precipitation Tabulation Table http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/5-Stations_Tab.pdf 2014 WY Precipitation Summary http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/precip/PRECIPSUM Snow Data: Latest Snow Sensor Report http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PAGE6 Latest Statewide Summary of Snow Water Equivalents http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/DLYSWEQ Monthly Snow Course Report http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/COURSES Extended Regional Forecasts: California Nevada River Forecast Center 6 Day QPF and Snow Level Forecast http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/awipsProducts/RNOHD6RSA.php Climate Prediction Center One-Month Outlook Forecasts http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ Climate Prediction Center Three-Month Outlook Forecasts http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/ Drought Information: California Drought Information http://www.water.ca.gov/waterconditions/droughtinfo.cfm U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html