Phil

Thanks man. I honestly want no part of it, but unfortunately it'll be a family decision. As for dwelling upkeep, that's already a huge problem for us, haha. We've gone through 2 roofs and dozens of shutters over a mere decade.

We're looking at Moclips next week. Also ocean park.

Lulz. Appreciate the heads up

Well hopefully when we're touring next week the weather will suck. My wife wants to live on the beach, I want to live on a ridge top somewhere, but given we've been living on one for over a decade and a half, I don't get the final say. I told her I'll never agree to coastal California or Oregon. I'd be bored out of my mind.

Lol..we're actually looking at beachfront homes in NW WA. Is it that bad?

I know. I just found it a tad ironic that after hearing Tim complain 24/7, he posts a picture of a spring day more beautiful than anything I've seen thus far.

Dude there's not a cloud in the sky over there. Looks like you're having a decent spring compared the rest of the country..

Not quite true. Almost all of the interior NE has accomplished that. I was in NH during July 2009 and morning temps fell into the 20s more than once.

I hope you bust.

There's no doubt 2014-15 will be an El Niño winter. Problem is people love to hype and ignore the facts (AKA what governs ENSO). Hence all the super Niño predictions.

It's been nasty here too, but at least it looks like the worst is behind us. The ground is still frozen solid, snow everywhere, and no sign of bird/plant life. We're way past the equinox now too. Goes to show how massive our system's thermal inertia truly is. We're approaching a late-August Sun angle.

Either way I'm not happy about it, mainly because it'll probably lead to a terrible +DA circulation regime in the Arctic for 4-8 weeks, giving certain folks something to panic over. And we all know how crazy the media goes with this nonsense.

Haha. Probably over the NAO domain, or possibly the EPO domain...there's something to be said about persistence so I'm tempted to go with the latter, like you. The tropical forcings will dictate the location of the blocking. Right now we have a CCKW (convectively coupled Kelvin wave) over the IO, which will propagate east, setting off a major MJO wave and perhaps forcing another round of WWBs. This MJO wave will also be enhanced by cooling near the tropopause as a result of the PV breakdown. So whatever happens will probably be very unstable in nature, as we're quickly leaving the winter circulation regime behind.

Assuming a moderate El Niño/fully realized -QBO/+SAO, I think it'll look similar to 1965-66/1968-69 in many ways. For those who want to read up on the SAO: http://www.ann-geophys.net/27/4273/2009/angeo-27-4273-2009.pdf

Major SSW attm with a favorable EPF and full scale propagation likely, could be the FW event. Should see more "blocking" develop in May/June..which is exactly when we DON'T want it.

Big difference over the past winter/spring has been the +PDO/El Niño-esque Hadley Cell regime, which is now being reflected in the SSTs.. We now have a +PDO and El Niño conditions present. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.3.2014.gif

Ah I see, agree there. But they're also not likely going to get to them with the 5 trillion subforums to scroll through.

He says: Since when does downwelling associated with a WWB cool SSTs? Seems like a lot of folks forget that the subsurface waters are still generally colder than surface waters, and that a maintained series of WWBs is required to jump start a Niño..

You mean separate forums for different regions? I think we should have a vote on the merge plan that has been floated around. I agree that we should have different pinned threads for each "region", but what good does dividing up the community into entirely different forums do? We're not a big enough community, and we won't be unless we merge the forums. Unless the goal is to have the same 5 or 6 folks posting in each forum, with zero inter-forum communication...

Reasoning? I don't see a problem with it.

I can't stop laughing: http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm

I'm not expecting "glowing responses" to anything I post, but I do expect a meager level of respect and civility, given the fact that everything I've done here has been well-intentioned. I make a few "out-of-region" posts now and again, but the majority of my contributions are scientific in nature and apply to this subforum in one way or another...at least I hope they can be viewed as contributions... Who gives a rat's azz whether or not someone lives in a "snowier" climate than someone else? Is that what drives the level of "respect" and/or "acceptance" you get around here? If true, that's quite sad, in my opinion.

Hope it's ok if I post these.. Winter just refuses to give up...snow and 50mph winds today http://catchmypicture.com/f/u2ghhV/640.jpg http://catchmypicture.com/f/XF0Zcw/800.jpg http://catchmypicture.com/f/U5zKV0/800.jpg

Yeah the lake buffers out the extremes in both seasons. Cooler summers as well.

Agreed there. I could never live in a big city where people fret over every snowflake. My sister in DC says people there flock to the grocery stores when snow showers are in the forecast..lol.. I read the Wikipedia page on Houghton though..very nice place if you're an icepussy..but otherwise its probably too extreme for me: "Climate Houghton has a humid continental climate but the (typically) long and snowy (due to lake-effect snow, with an average of 218 inches (5.54 m))[29] winters make the city feel as though it is in a climate much further north. It is sometimes said that Houghton has “two seasons: winter’s here and winter’s coming.”[30] While Houghton’s winters may be the subject of humor, residents take the subject of snow and winter very seriously. Houghton is one of the premier “Winter Cities” found anywhere. A “Winter City” is a community that accommodates winter, celebrates it, and whose residents generally enjoy the season by participating in a variety of outdoor activities. Among those activities are cross country skiing, snow-shoeing, ice fishing, snowmobiling, ice skating and outdoor ice hockey, among other activities. Houghton celebrates winter through the “Winter Carnival” organized by Michigan Tech every year in February.[31] Houghton's summer climate tends to be especially pleasant, as hot temperatures are often moderated by the cool waters of the nearby Lake Superior. Only once, in July 1988, have temperatures hotter than 100 °F (38 °C) been reported. The coldest temperature on record has been −26 °F (−32 °C) on 21 January 1984, which is actually less extreme than many places to the west, and the heaviest monthly snow 119 inches (3.02 m) in December 1972. The highest mean snow cover has been 43 inches (1.09 m) on several occasions, most recently in February 1996."