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Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Everything posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth

  1. Hummm . . . Michael Ventrice@MJVentrice·1h Worried about Invest #94W out over the West Pacific and how the models may be struggling to resolve the correct intensity/track, and resulting interaction with the North Pacific Jet. Could spark some volatility in the medium-range model U.S. forecasts during the 11-15d period.
  2. Sometimes before an arctic blast, it seems the ridge will temporarily flatten and a allow a system in, then it will re-amplify and retrograde.
  3. I have followed volcanoes closely for awhile. The mega tsunami story has been debunked. I fell for it too until I read what real volcanologists and geologists who studied the Canary Islands said. Good summary of the hype from a geologist here: http://www.lapalma-tsunami.com/about.html
  4. I checked, and January 1985 was pretty dry for Seattle, and probably everywhere else. Except for a week with a couple of days of minor rainfall. Otherwise it was foggy most of the month. So it is unusual, but not unprecedented, to have 4 weeks or so of a huge ridge parked over us during winter months.
  5. Does anyone ever remember a huge ridge of high pressure sitting over us for 4-5 weeks during winter? 2 weeks, sure, pretty common. I just don't remember one ever lasting an entire month. I could be wrong of course.
  6. I did. I moved to Leavenworth. Even in a bad year we still get 40-50 inches of snow, and a good year can be over 120 inches. And we always have great scenery. You have to love the area when it's not winter too.
  7. Under the "just for fun, not a forecast" category, thought I would post this JMA for Christmas Eve. Maybe in line with Phil saying around the holidays we could get blasted.
  8. I read it too, and they did not take into account today's 12z Euro, they took into account yesterday's 12Z Euro and the overnight 0Z. Yesterday's 12Z Euro ensembles had no negative temperature anomalies for the PNW in the 8-14 day range.
  9. They are 100% reliable if you like what they are showing, they are garbage if you don't like it. And yes, the Euro weeklies have changed over the last week or so, especially for the east, where it has taken away the cold in the long range.
  10. The new Euro weeklies apparantly look relatively warm all the way into mid December. No real arctic air anywhere in North America, Brett Anderson said "Despite some high latitude blocking, it appears that a strong, west to east flow of Pacific air will dominate across the western two-thirds of North America into December." ​Strong, west to east flow would seem to be relatively normal temps, especially during the day, with warmer nights due to clouds. So maybe that is good for the mountains.
  11. I agree. Everyone seems to be saying this is strictly a West based Nina, but it looks like it is starting to become a more basin wide Nina, even if the strongest anomalies are East based. Region 4 down to -.81 and dropping like a rock, 3.4 is down to -.85, and 1+2 looks like it is holding steady and not dropping.
  12. I used to live in the Bellingham area, and north County always had way more impressive winds and blizzard conditions than the greater Bellingham area. I remember the local weather forecaster from KGMI would always draw the line north of the Smith Road as to the worst of the conditions.
  13. Ventrice tweeted earlier about the 12Z Euro. I done know how to put a tweet here, but he said "oday's 12Z ECMWF EPS 11-15d period forecast indicates a flip in the North America Pattern, driven by upstream changes in the North Pacific Jet & collapse of Greenland blocking. This change in pattern would shut down the arctic express. Uncertainty is still elevated, however" The map of 850 anomalies for that time showed normal 850's for WA, slight cool anomalies for Western Oregon, negative anomalies off the coast, and warm anomalies east of the Rockies.
  14. The 3.4 region dropped from -.4 to -1.1, a drop of -7, which is the largest one week drop since 1990.
  15. On another note, Michael Ventrice tweeted out an interesting graph about the differences between last night's Euro vs the 12Z Euro from today He said "Uncharacteristically large changes in today's 12Z ECMWF EPS run by Forecast Day 10; Could be a buyer beware type of situation with regards to this evening's ECMWF Weekly model release." Note, on this image, which is hour 258, this is the difference in the 500mb from last nights run not the actual anomalies. Not sure what this means for temps, probably a bit cooler, maybe a lot more stormy?
  16. And to be fair to Phil, people in the PNW never have to worry about hurricanes.
  17. Found this here http://www.summitpost.org/interesting-weather-statistics-for-us-mountain-summits/171585 Now, to be fair, the Rainier data is for the summit, where nobody is really there, except briefly for climbers, where Mt. Washington is much more accessible, and there is a full time crew at the Observatory. And Rainier's data is interpolated from actual data coming from Camp Muir. "Unfortunately, wind speed data is hard to obtain for most of these mountains. Of all these mountains, Mount Washington is the only one with long term wind data. Other than wind data for Mount Washi
  18. http://mynorthwest.com/424892/was-windstorm-2016-overblown-exaggerated/
  19. I don't take much stock in really long range models, and this is ridiculously extreme, but just for fun, here is last nights 18Z CFS run for December.
  20. Good tweet from Michael Ventrice this morning, sorry I dont know how to embed the full twitter with images, but here is what he said: "Interesting conundrum between the ECMWF and CFSv2 weeklies; CFSv2 not buying into prolonged -NAO episode like ECMWF. Instead, model reverts back to La Nina/+NAO pattern that can bring anomalous warmth across the East. This will be worth watching"
  21. Not meaning this for states other than the PNW, since this is a Western forum, so mainly Oregon and Washington, and there already is a California thread. Maybe BC if they want that.
  22. I think during an actual event that it would be a good idea to have a separate topic by region. Or to have separate topics by events, like "Portland (or Seattle) snowstorm December 15th, 2018". But I like having one main topic to get the big picture until something happens. Unless we want to have Oregon/Washington separate topics by observed weather, but still have the main monthly topic for the big picture.
  23. So is the control run colder for the PNW than the ensemble mean, or am I reading your original post wrong and the low 500mb heights just means a lot of storms but normal temps? If it did show cold temps for us, it is different than the ensembles, so probably the ensembles would be more accurate? Not sure how the really long range models work.
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