Terry Swails explains why models may struggle in the upcoming days with so much going on in the Pacific. When the short waves are bunched like this, the pattern gets noisy and models often struggle with the resolution of energy within the flow. Models can look substantially different from day to day as they attempt to resolve how the atmosphere will respond. Guidance is especially vulnerable to change when the energy is concentrated over the Pacific, where data grids are limited compared to what's available over the U.S. I'm anticipating some challenging forecasting, especially once colder air returns to the pattern next week.

Here are the phase 8 and phase 1 temperature analogs for January. Phase 1 in particular sends cold air into the central US with stronger possibilities of winter storms on the south side of the cold air. The AO and NAO look to remain negative for the entire month or very close to it! @gabel_23 showed some maps awhile back that included one of the signature storms of the LRC. This storm produced rainfall from Texas to Minnesota and showing up on the models.

What I've noticed over the past few weeks is the pattern keeps on showing up with storms, even though the snow on snow has sucked in DEC, esp this time of year....it appears very likely that JAN will make up for it....IMHO, it'll be a solid ski/snowboard season for the resorts after this rain/warmth.

Forgot to add the precip pattern is def trending in the right direction...this pattern is ripe for the majority of our Sub from the Plains into the MW/OHV/Lakes region......

Heck ya baby! Lesss go!! Time to freakin' bust out the winter gear and make it snow Mother Nature... CFSv2 going balls out with a mean trough centered over the Lower Lakes....man oh man, haven't seen a JAN pattern like this since....JAN '14 maybe so, but that trough was a bit farther N and slightly E, iirc, but this map is showing a lot more -AO and a bit Greenland blocking. Let's get this Party Rocking! We will be Welcome Ol' Man Winter in 2025 right on cue in the the opening days and this time it ain't going away any time soon. Boom! CFSv2 4x daily last 16 runs...