The 00z Euro has a trough of similar tilt and position next week to the September 2019 outbreak, with diffluence under SSW flow. The only differences are that it's a little bit cooler aloft and the trough in question is more cut off with actual negative tilting. This warm core threat has run to run support across different models, though with some inconsistency Sept 2019 was interesting in that it was a warm core outbreak ahead of an - albeit barely - positively tilted trough.

Our latest stops have been Tunis, Catania/Taormina, and then we left Italy and had our first stop in Greece in Katakolo/Olympia. Taormina, Sicily was a highlight of our trip so far. It was very cute and charming with magnificent views and some of the best pizza we've ever had. Olympia, Greece was also a wonderful time. We are big fans of the Olympics and it was so interesting learning about the first Olympic games held in Greece back in 776 BC. We also stopped at a family-ran Greek winery and had amazing homemade food and delicious wines. Today we are in Monemvasia, Greece and tomorrow we head to Santorini before wrapping up our trip in Ephesus, Turkey and Athens!

I was inferring that fuels are drier abnormally early at higher elevations and that’s what we’re working with. Very unusual to have a prescribed burn lose containment at 6500’ when normally it’s snow covered. If it stays dry, we’re ripe. If we do manage a normal summer with minimal dry lightning we could be ok.

Did I say you said it would be worst fire season ever? Good Lord... You clearly inferred that a fire now means something for the upcoming fire season. Is there any other way to read it?

I said what we’ll be working with, not that it will be the worst fire season ever. For someone that likes to down play the doom posting, you seem to be trying to find something to start on that. Also conveniently ignoring my last question again.