I'm thinking we get both these next two troughs, then dive into extended heat. Much like tracking an arctic blast in the winter, the Euro is jumping the gun early on a pattern change. These kinds of meta-trends across model runs are the exact kind of thing AI counterparts resolve well. And, lo and behold, on the AI Euro we get a cohesive rainstorm with heights below normal after this next trough.

This is what I pointed out earlier with the information loss in taking the average of individual members/operational runs in the long range. The ensemble average is usually regressed to the mean after D10... But as we get closer we should see it trend towards the correct cluster, which has been dominantly warm.

Yes... ECMWF AIFS turns warm by about day 12. ECMWF just skips the troughing reload next week and warms up 4 or 5 days earlier.

Day 10 + look to be trending to the warm cluster.