Second half of May was colder than normal in the Seattle area. And now another week of below normal coming up. I think we are going to be DUE for a big warm up by late next week!

A big problem is Strong El Nino's are not spinning up a massive North Pacific low like they used to. Whether we are in a -ENSO/-PDO decadal state, or maybe the jet stream is just lifting north in general, the same thing is happening with this El Nino so far. May is usually a decently correlated month: And it's been all -PNA

Yeah, I genuinely don't think a summer like that would be possible today unfortunately. And winter 1997-98 was a slightly colder version of 2015-16 nationally. The shoulder months of November 1997 and March 1998 actually had some chilly weather nationally which I doubt we'll see to the same extent this coming year. Even mega Niño years like that are a reminder of how much warmer a baseline we are working with now several decades later.

4-5 whole days without significant warm departures could be huge.

Nice! If you want to bet against the Euro and modern warm season climo then do so at your own peril. At least+1 to 1.5 for the first half of the month. Back half is likely warmer relative to average. Seems worm.