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The link to the Blob vs. El Niño article Tom posted is well worth reading. Probably the best written on the topic I've seen. The big thing will be will the ridge act to deflect the likely strong storms from the Pacific northward towards Alaska and the Yukon or will the ridge get cut off and allow the storms to move into California...? The above maps suggest a sub tropical jet will be able to punch through and allow storms to hit drought stricken areas, but yet allow a NW flow to occur further into the continent. Something tells me the whole West Coast of the continent won't see above normal precipitation - that would be more like a La Niña pattern. Even if the El Niño signal doesn't look like a true Modoki, the winter precipitation and temperature anomalies may end up looking like it in the end - all due to the Blob that will likely survive for several more months yet.

An interesting set-up for a potential large system to hit somewhere in the Plains late next week as a storm systems enters the West Coast and a system develops in the western Gulf. With a -PNA developing and a HP in the SE, this can tug a lot of moisture up from the GOM next weekend. I'm hoping for a big wound up storm system. GFS/EURO Ensembles have something cutting far to the NW from here which will put the Lakes in the warm sector. Still lots of time to see how it plays out. AO is forecast to be negative so may see some correction on the exact track.

Possible Indian Summer conditions next Mon/Tue for the Plains??? Some areas may touch 80F after a killing Freeze in NE. Not bad around here also for Game 3 & 4 of NLCS. JMA Weeklies suggest a nation divided Week 1....cold in the East, warm in the West with the 4 corners getting wet. Week 2 a trough forms in the SW, ridge in the SE...nice pattern setting up for systems entering the central CONUS. Would be an ideal pattern for the Winter season.

Would rather have it now than later in the winter, in fact, I welcome a ridge (a weak one at that). Always nice to have an extended golf season

Agreed re: the more classic forcing/walker configuration this go around. The question is, in my opinion, is there still enough interference present to cause problems w/ the older analogs, considering that the IO subsidence is still relatively weaker now than it was in the 19th century? I suspect this may explain why the Niño/stagnant connective forcing has a wider periphery vs 1997-98 and 1982-83, and why Niño4 has warmed relatively faster over the last 20yrs versus Niño3. I've also looked at AMO/IO relationship, and I believe it to be another chicken-egg problem? My statistical conclusion is that the IO/PAC appears to lead the AMO by a year or so, at least on the resolution we're looking at. l could be wrong but I'm skeptical that the NATL tail can wag the tropical dog. Do you have any thoughts on this? That's impressive! Where do you think this Niño tops at? From my perspective, it's dumbfounding to see what ERSST4 has become. There are all sorts of inhomogeneities in that dataset which should be obvious/easy to correct for, both short and long term, in my opinion. It's not my place to make accusations like this, as I don't have the knowledge to do so, but I suspect political pressure is part of the equation.

The IO/E Hem interference has not been nearly as prevalent with the current NINO (relatively speaking), which is likely related to the -AMO being able to isolate the anomalous NINO circulation in the Pacific as opposed to most post 1991-92 NINOs bleeding into the western hemisphere/Africa. I seriously doubt it's just mere coincidence that this abrupt change in NINO upper level configuration coincided with the AMO flip ~1995... It's been a while since we've seen a classic look like this. http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/compday.C6aQJbka5x.gif BTW, Kaplan's Extended SSTv2 dataset just updated several hours ago. As expected, (since it's just a lower resolution version of OISSTv2 after 1981), the latest ONI value is precisely in line with OISSTv2, now up to +1.90 C, and JAS was ranked 2nd overall since 1870 behind 1877-78. If the current rate of intensification that we've observed over the past few months holds thru October, we're going to set a new record in this dataset. To be frank, the more datasets I compile together, the more I find it sad how many in the field nor the public don't realize that NOAA's ERSST products are grossly underestimating the intensity of this El Nino. There's a massive difference between an ONI value under +1.5C & +1.90C, the former is no doubt impressive, but the latter is historic & practically unprecedented in the last few centuries... http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Kaplan-Extended-SSTv2-1990-JAS-2015-889x1024.png

I agree. I'd like better data on the 19th century IO domain, though, considering the strong correlation between low-freq IO forcing and wave coherence in the stratosphere. Certainly it appeared to play a role in preventing what should have been a major SSW/-NAM last January/February through destructive wave interference. In fact, I'd argue that the IO is the most underrated player in seasonal forecasting today. It influences W/H intensity and spread ratio, hence poleward eddy flux and mass transport imbalance.

Yeah, I've certainly noticed, there have also been substantial low frequency changes in the EP zonal SST gradient that are contributing... The overall forcing & SST distribution in this NINO is certainly more analogous to 1877-78 & 1982-83 than 1997-98. The plethora of TC activity in the east-central deep tropical Atlantic (spurred in large part by a sudden & rather unusual +AMM) spike as well as a year of "preconditioning" wrt to ENSO (i.e. warm neutral-weak NINO up to a year preceding the development of an extraordinary NINO) gives this event some interesting similarities to the 19th century "Super" El Ninos (1877-78 & 1888-89) as opposed to 1982-83 & 1997-98, IMO. The 19th century Super NINOs also provide a stronger analog for solar background (esp. @ inter-multidecadal timescales)...

So my paper that I wrote earlier this year on the fog climatology, distribution, and frequency for Northern Utah was officially accepted by the American Geophysical Union last week. I am not sure when it will be printed but its fun to officially have a paper under my name.