Jbolin

figured I'd play along, why not?

Songda remnants are still out in the central Pac, nowhere near the west coast, YET

This setup reminds me somewhat of 1995, NWS didn't "pull" the trigger to alert the public until almost inside of 40 hrs

I respectfully disagree, this may be one of those rare situations where the roles are reversed and the ECMWF has it right

And yet the EURO continues the trend ( so to speak )

F*** It, wake me up when we can get a redux of mentionable weather around here Tired of the models promising us the PS4 and only giving us the Commodore 64

This

YES YES YES, I have one and it's the best money I've ever spent.

Meh, I don't like the guy but he's in the ballpark

Kind of eerie to see the euro take Saturday's storm on a track very similar to Columbus Day storm

I was noticing this too even back on Sunday as the NE quadrant of Songda was already being entrained into the jet and obvious shear present.

On average wind gusts in the 55-65 mph range for that late summer wind event Furthermore most locals around western Washington would be in agreement that "major" wind events would constitute events like Columbus Day, Inauguration Day and Hanukkah Eve type events and not your typical sub 980mb storms. Once you start seeing cross gradients in the +18 - 20mb or higher then you can start the "major" discussion, at least in my opinion.

You're not going to like the Wxbell maps then I have a subscription and looking through the run into Sunday morning, the low bombs out at 954mb about 350 miles offshore and shoots straight northeast to Haida Gwaii But like you I'm optimistic. However looking at the large scale pattern this week and with a pinwheeling ULL in the GOA I don't see Saturday's storm coming very close to the neighborhood. Breezy to moderately windy, Yes Columbus Day Part Deux, No

A lot of great reading tonight, 'tis been refreshing to say the very least

Charley was in '05

Dude, don't eve get me started on Dec 1996 and add Dec 2008 and OMG Textbook scenarios of what can happen when cold air actually entrenches west of the crest

6 year olds, paranoid schizo's, the members of this forum, Iluvsnowseattle And the occasional lawyer from Hockinson

Two pics this morning from W. Sea #1 Nice defined Jellyfish clouds showing strong upper level winds blowing the ice crystals SE #2 A pair of iridescent Sun Dogs looking East

SBCAPE, MUCAPE, LLLR's and LI's are moderate to very high in the Cascades LI's of -4C in the north central Cascades Now to see what if anything transpires

SPC has MRGL risk for N. Oregon/S. Washington mountain areas. CAPE output for later today max (0-70mb AGL) 1250/2000JK/g LI's -3 to -6C and with a nice cold pool of air aloft to work with. As well as BK in excess of 50kts and later this aft/eve could be rocking for some

Yes but necessary parameters are less favorable. LI's have decreased, CAPE is laughable and the LFC/LCL's are not favorable IMHO Add into the mix the increased dry air over the area and this could be a minuscule if any event.

Yes Wait, NO!