PhiEaglesfan712

I think we get something similar to 2005-06. The first two-thirds of December were cold before it moderated out, then January was an absolute torch:

This sounds about right. The first ten days or so in December are going to be below average temperaturewise for most of the Eastern US. Furthermore, I see a snowstorm coming in the mid-Atlantic area around Dec. 4-5.

At least we had a long-standing lull this year. That was never the case in 2005. In the month prior to his post, we had Tropical Storm Franklin (7/21-7/29), Tropical Storm Gert (7/23-7/25), Tropical Storm Harvey (8/2-8/9), and wait for it... a long-running hurricane that dissipate just a few days earlier, in Irene (8/4-8/18). That post was just stupid, lol.

2005 was so active, we still had 4 named storms from this point (Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta). The most amazing part is that none of them were a short one or two-day storm. All of them lasted for about a week, even Zeta during the first week of January.

Imagine if Rafael follows that purple path (HWRF) up to 168, then decides to follow the green path (TWFY?).

November and December were the chilly months here in the mid-Atlantic. We got an early snow event on December 5, as well as a snowstorm on February 22. Outside of that, there wasn't much snow to go around in the mid-Atlantic that winter. If not for a (perfectly-timed) rainstorm on October 24-27, there would have been a drought here in 2007-08.

17 years ago today began a rainstorm that likely prevented a drought for most of the mid-Atlantic. This map from October 30, 2007 (just days after the October 24-27 rainstorm) shows just how close we were to having a drought:

September average is 22.8C (73F) high/9.3C (48.7F) low, or daily mean of 15.9C (60.6F). That is equivalent to the April averages in Charlotte, NC. So, imagine that big of a snowstorm in Charlotte, a place where it hasn't snowed since January 29, 2022.

For me, the best analogs are 1998-99 (MEI match, drought conditions in mid-Atlantic, hurricane season activity), 2007-08 (best MEI/RONI match), 2016-17 (best ONI/RONI match, hurricane season activity), and 2020-21 (top MEI/RONI match):

Highest Atlantic Hurricane ACE seasons (NOTE: Data averages Wunderground & NOAA values for years 2016 and before, NOAA values only for 2017 and later) 1 2005 247.65 2 1933 235.785 3 1893 231.0738 4 1995 227.5513 5 1950 227.1413 6 2004 226.94 7 1926 225.7788 8 2017 224.8775 9 1961 196.95 10 1998 181.8838 11 2020 180.3725 12 1955 178.585

My guess is that this upcoming winter will fall somewhere between 2007-08 and 2020-21. These are the years with the best MEI/RONI match. For PHL, there will be a snow event in the first half of December, followed by a snow lull through the end of January. February will be the snowiest month, but the last snow will be around February 22nd.

Yes, the subsurface being cold and the PDO at -3 makes a la nina in 2025-26 a high probability, possibly even one that peaks in between seasons like 2021-22/2022-23. There is an outside chance of an ENSO neutral season like 1989-90, but I'm almost certain the door is shut on an el nino in 2025-26. If there was going to be one, the PDO would already be making its way towards positive territory, but it is still stuck in deep negative.