PhiEaglesfan712

Multi-year la nina events are more common, but not multi-year el nino events. It comes down to the fact that it's easier to sustain a la nina event than an el nino. It's very rare to have consecutive el nino years. Before 2014-15 and 2015-16 (and possibly 2018-19 and 2019-20), the last time we had back-to-back el nino years was 1986-87 and 1987-88.

78F in Buffalo today (not a record, hard to believe). Beats out the 72 from March 4 and 5, and is the average high for July. It never got this hot the 3 days I was here in July 2009.

Looks like above average temperatures in Buffalo:

The rain wrecking havoc on MLB opening day in the East Coast. The Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets opening games have been pushed back to tomorrow. The Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles game looks like it will go on as scheduled at 3:05 pm ET.

List of El Nino to La Nina transition years (bolded are best analog years for 2024-25) 1954: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Strong La Nina in 1955-56) 1964: Moderate El Nino -> Weak La Nina 1970: Weak El Nino (preceded by Moderate El Nino in 1968-69) -> Moderate La Nina 1973: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina 1983: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Moderate La Nina in 1984-85) 1988: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina 1995: Moderate El Nino -> Moderate La Nina 1998: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina (repeated in 1999-2000) 2005: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina 2007: Weak El Nino -> Strong La Nina 2010: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina 2016: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (repeated in 2017-18) 2020: Maybe Weak El Nino (preceded by Weak El Nino in 2018-19) -> Moderate La Nina (repeated in 2021-22 and 2022-23)

If I remember correctly, the Derecho was the 29th. June 2012 was almost like April 2012 temperaturewise in the Eastern US, close to normal. Here in the Philly area, the first half of June was cool, like the 2nd half of April. After the Derecho was widespread, historic heat. July was another month of well above average temperatures for the Eastern US, following March and May.

I guess it depends on the source, but most sources have 1973-74 and 1988-89 as the top 2, with each reaching -1.8 to -2C. 2010-11 is in the next group, along with 2007-08 and 1999-2000, as consensus strong la ninas, that reached -1.6 or -1.7C. Then, you have 1955-56, 1975-76, and 1998-99, which are on the moderate/strong border, closer to -1.5C.

Of course, that cold that didn't last for long. Many of those areas had a historically warm May as well.

2013-14 was the last true ENSO neutral winter. You could make the argument for 2019-20, but that one could be considered a weak el nino.El Nino La Nina Years.xlsx

Latest CPC ENSO Probability:

FWIW, your snowiest season (2007-08) was a strong la nina. While the last 2 strong la ninas were above average snowfall in your area, all the others in the 20th century (6 since 1950, or 7 if you include 1916-17) were below average.

I'm headed to Buffalo/Niagara Falls for the Eclipse. I'm hoping some of that warm weather from last week lingers into early April. I've been there twice, in July 1992 and July 2009, and it was cold.

It should be noted that our most recent strong la nina, in 2010-11, followed a strong el nino season (2009-10). In fact, it is common for strong/super el ninos to transition into strong la ninas the following season. In addition to 2010, other years that featured such a transition are 1973, 1988, and 1998. The 1973-74 and 1988-89 la ninas are the two strongest la ninas on record.