IbrChris

You mean the ensemble mean? Both suggestive of 90-93 (~20c H8 temps). Might end up 2 days...we'll see.

Tonight's ensembles throwing out some fairly impressive numbers for PDX suggesting ~3 days at or above 90. GFS ensembles the hottest with potential for mid 90s Sun-Mon. Mid-late next week looks more seasonable with low-mid 70s, more in the way of AM clouds. Potential for some Cascade thunderstorms at least toward central Oregon Mon-Tue though moisture looks pretty marginal. Overall message is hot (mean +15) fading to weakly above normal (mean +2) and continued below avg precip as we enter the first week of June. Looking at peak 850 mb temps there's a range generally from 19c to 21c...GFS and GEFS on the lower end and Euro/EPS on the higher end. 20c H8 should be good enough for highs around 33-34c at the surface in late May assuming fairly flat to lightly offshore gradients...with 35c in the realm of possibility.

Enjoy it because if Phil's hunch is correct this might be one of only a handful of 80s this year. In 1954 we only saw 10 days of 80+, 27 in 1955 and 1964, 28 in 1948 and 30 in 1953. The 1950s were rough in Portland if you liked warm summers. More recently in 2010 we only managed 37 days. The POR average is 52 days of 80+ a year while the 1981-2010 normal is 56 days. The high was 88 days in 2015...amazing summer that year. The 67 days in 2013, 77 in 2014, 88 in 2015 and 71 in 2016 are unrivaled in terms of consecutive summers with >10% more 80s than normal.

On second thought I'd go warmer mid-week...now looks like 85-88 is possible. Consider the last five runs of the Euro ensembles...highest 850 mb temp for next Wednesday May 3rd: 4/28 12z: 12.9c 4/29 00z: 13.2c 4/29 12z: 15.4c 4/30 00z: 16.4c 4/30 12z: 17.1c Looking at recent climatology for May at SLE (00z 850 temp vs high temp): 23.0c....95 degrees on May 15, 2006 22.0c....99 degrees on May 16, 2008 20.8c....90 degrees on May 27, 2005 19.6c....91 degrees on May 26, 2005 18.8c....87 degrees on May 13, 2012 18.4c....92 degrees on May 17, 2008 18.2c....80 degrees on May 14, 2012 18.2c....87 degrees on May 28, 2009 18.0c....88 degrees on May 15, 2008 17.8c....89 degrees on May 30, 2009 16.8c....88 degrees on May 28, 2007 16.8c....84 degrees on May 15, 2006 16.6c....88 degrees on May 29, 2007 16.2c....85 degrees on May 18, 2008 16.0c....88 degrees on May 29, 2009 15.6c....84 degrees on May 31, 2009 Early May there was a nice warm spell in 2013: 16.4c....83 degrees on the 10th 15.2c....85 degrees on the 11th 15.2c....81 degrees on the 9th 14.4c....87 degrees on the 5th 14.4c....81 degrees on the 6th Seems like mid to perhaps upper 80s is a possibility at 17c with 90 becoming possible around 18-19c.

Some well-deserved temps ~80 middle of next week for PDX...then back to regular spring programming. I'll be down in AZ where PHX is slated to be in the low 100s late next week. The following weekend may give way to some strong winds in the lower deserts which means potential for blowing dust or even a haboob.

Cool convergence boundary lying E-W across Maryland and Delmarva this afternoon. Thunderstorm near DC tracking along the boundary. Loop here: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=cenmidat-02-48-1

Similar but foehn is not a sub-class of katabatic winds since the foehn is a wind that has cooled as it has risen in altitude then warms as it descends while a katabatic wind is cooled by radiative transfer not altitude change.

Proper term for a wind that warms adiabatically as it descends is a "foehn" wind. Whether in the lee of the Rockies, the Andes, the Alps etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foehn_wind

Osorno looks sorta like coastal OR with slightly less precip. Temps are very similar. Could also pass for somewhere like Shelton, WA.

Sure...one of only a few other places in the world with a temperate marine climate bordering on a temperate Mediterranean climate (so as to ensure drier summers). Most of the temperate climates have either equitable precip throughout the year or a warm season maximum. Although I'm guessing the risk of arctic air is much lower to negligible in Chile/Argentina...mostly maritime polar airmasses.

So the conclusion of the thread is....Portland's (and the PNW's) climate is fairly unique when considering the rest of the world.

Good point. I forgot about the great floods of 1993 in the Midwest. My great-grandfather owned a home along the Missouri River in central MO that flooded up to the second floor...even though normally the house sits a good 25 feet above river level.

What is the largest town or city that has seen -40 in the 21st century? Probably International Falls. Maybe some fraction of 1% of the US population resides somewhere that has reached -40 since 2000. Most of the spots you mentioned are nearly devoid of permanent residents. Embarrass is the coldest town in the lower 48 on average...International Falls, MN and Tower, MN...as well as Baudette and Ely, MN aren't far behind.

1993...year without a summer in the PNW.

Very few cities in the US have seen -40 in the 21st century outside a few spots in the Rockies or northern Plains.

Better cancel the community garden this year. It's a total loss.

Neither in my opinion. Maybe Lyon, France as far as temps. As far as precip Porto, Portugal sorta mimics it although the dry season in Porto is shorter and the comparative rainy season stretches over more months (Portland has 6 months on average with 3" or more, Porto 8 months >3"). There's probably better comparisons though...maybe Coimbra, Portugal. Further north in Europe there's no real marked dry season in summer.

110 or so in Phoenix and -25 in St Anthony, ID. Looks like I'm close to tied with Phil for actual temp range experienced.

Record latest 70 in Portland (airport era) is May 5th...so assuming Friday doesn't make it to 70 (a good bet that it won't) and judging by the last couple days of model runs we may make a run at that record also. However this time of year things can change a lot even inside 7 days...so it's impossible to state any odds. Getting into early May any decent ridge even if transient can result in 70s.

Curious what station you use for representative "normal" data there.

80/50 is probably my summer ideal temp/dewpoint. 75/55 and 85/45 are ok too. The points where it becomes uncomfortable are a heat index above about 90. Most 90 degree days in Portland have heat indices <90.

Common during July-early Sept. My in-laws in Chandler get a similar dewpoint spike during the morning hours.

Worth noting he gets a lot more precip than Seattle proper given the orographic enhancement...probably on the order of 50% more precip over a year. Which brings me to the main reason I picked the west side of Portland metro: relatively less precip than the east side and the extra sunshine from the Hillsboro Hole in the summer (days with a relatively shallow marine layer). To put it into perspective some areas around Hillsboro average 35-36" a year while areas in extreme eastern metro like Corbett and Sandy average 60-70"

I will say Saturday at Seaside was pretty great. The clouds were mainly just inland with a strip of near nonstop sunshine along the immediate beach and offshore. It was around 60 in town...55 or so on the beach with the breeze a bit brisk. Overall not bad.

There's a reason they wear white robes...lol. Except the women...they tend to wear mostly black burqas.