Phil

No..

An thermal inversion below 850mb subsequently reflected in the windfield?

I think there's something wrong with the algorithm(s) on those free wunderground maps. The modeled sounding profiles don't translate at all.

There are multiple marine layer days on the 12z ECMWF. The ridge hype is just a bit overdone.

Those ensemble clusters are subject to the same model biases as the aggregated mean and OP ECMWF. Most notably, being over slow in propagating intraseasonal forcing eastward.

Funny, it's actually DCA that's killed me. More error there (for me) than three of the four other stations combined.

Setting the global SST anomaly to zero (current SSTAs relative to the global anomaly) can be useful. From a tropical forcing perspective, by longitude, this is how the climate system "sees" things. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png Versus the true anomalies relative to the 1981-2010 mean. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Huge differences in the IO forcing between the GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/EPS in the 6-10 day range. Like, it's not even close, one is going to bust prolifically. Ironically, the EPS and GEFS are in close agreement during the 11-15 day range (anticyclonic retraction to Aleutians following PAC-grad overturn under a typical branstrator wave, GOA trough, AAM/PNA drop) but diverge significantly during the 6-10 day range.

I agree with this. We'll have to stop the stealthy, backhanded digs at one another if the bolded is to become reality, however. Deal? Are we capable of that?

This 100%.

Stop dragging me back into this s**t. You started it with a laughably transparent, backhanded troll attempt at me. Normally I'd ignore it but you've been a relentless pain in my butt all summer and I'm low on patience.

Great paper on QBO modulation of the boreal winter MJO. Might imply a weaker MJO this winter (overall): http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1002/2016GL067762/asset/grl53976.pdf;jsessionid=5DC79E3D32F5AE8D77852C3C98DA41D7.f01t01?v=1&t=irnytdnh&s=8fca65fb372970c003f49aa0db3bfc62769a0867

#irony

I didn't say anything about how "nice" August would be, so any derivations and/or interpretations you made in that regard are of your own doing, and have no relevance to me whatsoever. I don't forecast within context of a Tim "niceness index". I'm a scientist, not a gypsy. Understand?

I don't care how "nice" you think a month is. I look at quantitative, numerically verifiable data, from all relevant standpoints. I don't live in a world where cherry picking and hyperbole is necessary to sustain a personal opinion on the nature of reality.

:lol: :lol:

Again, it's August 9th, and after a very cool first 1/4th of the Month you say: Which makes no sense because I argued for mid-month ridging and late month troughing (for a troughy month overall), and late-August is still largely out of range. Again, obvious troll attempt.

You started it all (again) with an attempted backhanded jab at my forecast. You never learn, dude. It's August 9th, and you're making baseless claims beyond even clown range GFS territory. You're transparent as f**k. At least try to be somewhat stealthy with your trolling.

No to be pompous, but I've pretty much nailed the overall summer pattern. Almost to a tee. You've been flailing in the wind since April, minus one solid call on timing during July.

Spin spin spin! Cha cha slide! It's almost like you're allergic to facts.

Sustained (on a subseasonal scale) = multi-week.

This is gonna be hilarious. Soon the models will start trending cool for late August as that ridge start retrograding offshore, and you'll throw yet another temper tantrum. I bet we have three or four "Tim" threads by August 20th.

Uh, I said mid-August ridging, late-August troughing a few days ago, and you agreed with me. What's wrong with you, dude?

Nice! I'll see if I can make time.

Well, now do you realize that tropical forcing (in general) indeed plays an important role in your weather, year round? The biggest shift in balance over the last 50yrs is not the planetary warming, rather, it's the Hadley cell expansion & associated poleward jet retraction (which has had an exaggerated effect on the Western US and Europe, less impact on the Eastern US and Siberia/China et al).