Dan the Weatherman

I am hoping for a storm that lasts for more than 5 minutes, and drops more than .05" in my backyard. The Monday night-Wednesday storm looks as if it will be more significant, possibly bringing .2" to .5" in coastal areas of Orange County. It has been like pulling teeth to get rain down here this year it seems. It's time for our weather to stop acting like we are in the Atacama Desert!

I don't know who made that map that Tim posted, but they called King County "King Country".

I can't believe that 9"+ of rain is a March record for Seattle, given that it is still the wet season in a wet climate, but I guess that the rain shadow from the Olympics helps to keep the totals down a bit. Los Angeles' wettest March in the 20th century was in 1983 in which 8.37" fell, followed by 1978 with 8.02".

I felt it quite strongly at my house here in Orange, as the epicenter is only approximately 7 or 8 miles NW of here. I didn't have any damage at my house except for a plant shelf getting knocked over that was not level in the first place. A couple of plants on the shelf sustained a bit of damage, but they will grow back, and I may be able to propagate the pieces that broke off to start new plants.

Just felt a sizable earthquake a couple of minutes ago here in Orange. It felt as if the house rocked back and forth and it continued for several seconds. Did anyone else feel it? Apparently it is a 5.3 magnitude quake that occurred near La Habra from very early indications.

Brian Allegretto of The Tahoe Daily Snow (http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe) mentioned that the ski resorts on the west side of Lake Tahoe received anywhere from 13-21", while those on the east side received 6-11" of snow with this last storm. At least the Sierras are getting some snow at this point and more is forecast over the next few days. There were a couple of tornadoes and/or funnel clouds in the Sacramento area yesterday. I believe there was even a supercell thunderstorm with a tornado up in that area somewhere, but I can't remember exactly where.

It was nice seeing some light rain, but I hope we see some more before the dry season sets in. The cool, breezy, and crisp weather today with the cloud variety surely was nice to see for a change in a winter in which this has been sorely lacking.

That would be a great way to finish off what has otherwise been an absolutely dismal season. Let's hope these upcoming storm possibilities actually verify!

It was a nice day for getting some yard work done. I am looking forward to the rain forecast for Wednesday, even if it doesn't amount to a whole lot.

It was cool here with marine layer clouds until it cleared up in mid-late afternoon. There is a chance of some light rain on Wednesday, and tonight's San Diego NWS AFD is mentioning that some models are indicating a trough in the west for the following week. Maybe we will see a few storms before the end of the rainy season after all.

I will gladly take a 1968-69 or 1994-95 type of winter. They were both very wet for CA and a year with plentiful precipitation like those two years would provide much needed drought relief for the state since we have been dealing with historic drought conditions. This hasn't been a long-term drought, rather it has been a relatively short-term one due to back to back pitiful winters with below normal rainfall and meager snowfall in the Sierras.

Even if we don't have an El Nino on par with 1997-98, I hope this attempt doesn't fizzle and we end up having another ENSO neutral year next year with a 5" season for Los Angeles and meager snows in the Sierras, or California is going to be in huge trouble drought-wise.

If El Nino develops this summer, then it would be more likely that the Midwest and East would have below average temperatures in the summer, while the West would be warmer than average. The SW monsoon may be more active as well.

Troughs in the NW tend to cause the Four Corners High to be suppressed to the south and east of its usual location, creating dry southwesterly flow over the SW deserts for much of NV, CA, and AZ. This happened to an extreme in the very cool summer of 2010 and to a slightly lesser extent, the summer of 2011. The last couple of summers have had a very active summer monsoon, and there was a ton of monsoonal moisture over my area last summer. If El Nino does develop, the SW monsoon will likely be more active this year with a much higher chance of moisture from decaying eastern Pacific tropical systems being entrained into the flow. Even areas in Socal west of the mountains may have an elevated chance of some summer showers and thunderstorms if everything comes together just right. There may even be more of a monsoonal moisture intrusion further north into Norcal, Oregon, Washington and other places further east at times this summer, as western ridging is more favored during an El Nino summer.

It sure would be nice to have a year in which CA could receive a decent amount of rain and snow while you all experience several cold spells with lowland snow in the PNW, so we can all have some weather we can enjoy at the same time.

It was quite a bit cooler here in Orange than it was yesterday, thanks to onshore flow and weaker high pressure aloft. It is nearly 10 degrees cooler tonight than it was at this time last night.

I hope this doesn't continue. I want to see a full latitude trough in the West with some staying power for once this winter! I am getting just as fed up with the unseasonable dryness and warmth out here as you are of the cold and snowy weather in your region.

Thanks for clarifying! I will be looking forward to those changes in the future and hoping for drought relief in the state.

The Hadley Cells consist basically of the subtropical high pressure systems that reside around 30N as a result of the subsidence from the convection in the ITCZ. Is that correct? When the cells extend poleward, I am assuming that these subtropical highs are larger and much further north than normal, creating a pattern of dryness further north normally associated with that of the "horse latitudes" leading to the megadrought conditions in the SW. Did you say above that the Hadley Cells would likely shrink and retract southward, allowing more storminess for CA, if we go into a grand solar minimum? I just wanted to make sure I read your post correctly.

I wonder if it is these conflicting signals that may be at least in part contributing to the bad drought conditions in CA by any chance. It almost sounds to me as if things are offsetting each other in some sort of fashion and as a result we are getting nothing but repeats of warm dry weather here in Socal.

This has definitely been a winter to forget in Socal with all the warm and dry weather we have had. Something is limiting the variability of the weather patterns in recent years because once a pattern gets into a rut, it can't seem to change to something different and just simply reverts back to the dominant pattern in a matter of just a couple of days. The ever-present eastern trough and western ridge of this winter is a prime example of what I am talking about.

I am not getting anywhere with that link, as no matter what I choose, the product / map or whatever is not available.

Usually a -PNA,,+NAO combo leads to mild weather back east and troughiness out west with a more active storm track.

Looks like highs in the 80's here tomorrow in inland Orange County, but like you said, it could very well approach 90 further inland, especially on Sunday. It needs to get colder up at Squaw Valley, especially at night, because the above freezing temperatures are going to lead to melting of the snow pack of what there is of it before we even get into the warm season.

That could be another undercutting low latitude storm system with the ridge forecast to be over Alaska and the predicted above normal temps for that period. Let's hope that verifies, as we need every drop of rain we can get before the dry season sets in for the late spring onward.