First and Lasts As we are now past the halfway mark of September 2024 I thought it would be a good time to take a look at some upcoming fall/winter first and last events. The average last 90° day at Grand Rapids is August 23rd. There have been two summers without a 90° day. The earliest last one was on June 10, 2000, the latest was on September 29, 1953. 1951 and 2014 did NOT have a days that officially reach 90 at Grand Rapids. Last year the last day was September 5th this year GR had 6 days of 90 or better with the last one on August 27th The average last 85° day is September 14th the earliest was on August 12, 1989 and the latest was on October 21, 1953. Last year the last one was on October 3rd The average last 80° day at Grand Rapids is September 30th the earliest was on August 28, 1918 the latest was on November 1, 1950 Last year it was on October 4th The average last 75° day at GR is October 14th the earliest was September 15, 1981 the Latest was on November 10th 2022. Last year it was on October 24th The average last 70 day is October 24th the earliest was October 1st 1925 and the latest was November 23, 1931 last year to was on October 24th The 1st 32° low that will signal the end of the growing season. Before I get to that I will remind everyone that the last 32° low last spring was on April 25th so we have had a very long frost free season this year. At Grand Rapids the average first low of 32 is on October 13th The earliest was September 3rd, 1946. The Latest was November 14, 1918. Last year it was on October 18th For a killing frost of 28 the average is October 29th The earliest was on September 23, 1974 and the latest was on November 29, 1948 Last year it was on October 31st For a hard freeze of 25 the average is November 8th the earliest was on October 3, 1974. The latest was on December 23, 2001 (talk about late) Last year it was on November 1st And for snow fall. The average that the first 1” snow fall occurs on is November 20th the earliest 1” snow fall was on October 12, 2006 the latest was on December 24th 2020. Last year it was on December 18th For a 3” snow fall the average first one is on December 5th the earliest one was on October 19, 1989 the latest was on March 16, 1949 Last year it was on January 9th 2024. As for a 6” snowfall not all years have a 6” snowfall but the average 1st date is January 6th the earliest is October 27th 1967 and the latest in years that had one is April 2nd 1975. In recent years 2018-2019, 2012-2013, and 2005-2006 did not have one. Snowfalls of 8” or more also do not happen every year but when they do the average 1st one is on January 15th the earliest was on October 27th 1967 the latest was on April 16th 1961. Only 4 of the last 10 years had a 8” or more snowfall. But there were 5 years in a row between 2006 and 2010.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 85/62 there was 0.09” of rainfall at the airport (here in MBY I only had 0.01” of rainfall) the highest wind gust was 25 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 72/51 the record high of 95 was set in 2017 the coldest high of 47 was set in 1913 the record low of 32 was set in 1962 the warmest low of 76 was set in 1931. The most rainfall of 3.16” fell in 1947. Grand Rapids now has had 11 day in a row of 80 or better, that is a record for days in a row of 80+. In September of 2017 Grand Rapids had a heat wave with 6 days in a row of 90+ starting on September 20th reaching highs of 95,95,96,94,91 and 92 the heatwave started on September 19 with a high of 87. At the current time it is very foggy and 63 here in MBY.

I think this may end up being an ok winter at least but hard to say just yet, as you noted.

CFS, which is definitely a garbage model, has been churning out some interesting forecasts for winter. This would be legendary.

They won't need a sales event after all the crashed cars this isie Desembrrrrr