This mornings run of the GEFS is showing a nice amount of ensemble support for a snowy first week of January. Several systems moving through the plains between the 1st and 7th.

Here is some weather history for December 23 in southern lower Michigan. 1941: Lower Michigan is in the midst of a three day spell of mild weather with highs in the 50s from the 22nd to the 24th. The high temperature at Muskegon on this date is a record 54 degrees. 1989: Temperatures fall to record lows of 5 below zero at Muskegon and 11 below at Grand Rapids during the coldest December on record at both sites. 2022 Detroit’s temperatures plummeted from 40 degrees just before midnight to 1 degree at 10 a.m. in the wake of a blast of arctic air. Gusty winds of 35 to 60 mph kept wind chills in the single digits to negative teens throughout the day. 2004, a strong storm system lifted northeast out of eastern Texas and moved through the Ohio Valley. Snow tapered off by early afternoon with most locations receiving between 6 to 10 inches. Strong northerly winds to 30 mph, and up to 45 mph near Lake Huron, also caused blizzard conditions with significant blowing and drifting of snow. Here are some of the higher snowfall totals: Burton 7.5 inches (Genesee), Caseville 8.0 inches (Huron), Dryden 7.5 inches (Lapeer), Deerfield 9.0 inches (Lenawee), New Baltimore 9.0 inches (Macomb), Dundee 8.0 inches (Monroe), Bloomfield Hills 9.3 inches (Oakland), Saline 8.2 inches (Washtenaw), Romulus 8.8 inches (Wayne), and Port Huron 10.0 inches (St Clair).

Yesterday’s official H/L at GRR was 28/10 there was a trace of snowfall. The sun was out 2% of the time. For today the average H/L is 34/23 the record high of 60 was in 2015 the coldest high of 8 was in 1960. The record low of -11 was in 1989 warmest low of 45 was in 1979, 1941. The most snowfall of 7.5” was in 2022 the wettest was 1.02” in 1932 the most snow on the ground was 19” in 1951.

Here in Grand Rapids, we still don’t know if there will be a white Christmas this year or not. Here is a list of percentage of decades in the past had white a Christmas. Percent of years with a white Christmas (1” or more on the ground) at Grand Rapids by decade since 1950. (1950’s 50%) (1960’s 90%) (1970’s 80%) (1980’s 50%.) (1990’s 70%) (2000/09 80%) (2010/19 50%) 2020/23 50%) At Lansing (1950’s 40%) (1960’s 80%) (1970’s 80%) (1980’s 60%) (1990’s 50%) (2000/09 80%) (2010/19 50%) (2020/23 25%) The most on the ground was in 1951 with 20” at Lansing and 22” at Grand Rapids.

At hour 360…