I think models latched onto a real signal. Just a little too early. In a week we'll hopefully be seeing more snowy runs, maybe within 300 hours too...

Finishes strong though!!!

Good model trend this morning showing a slower progression of the trough and a northward trend of the surface low. 6z NAM 6z GFS 6z Euro CMC

Unfortunately I think you are right. Would be interesting to get a 2018-19 repeat though.

Currently I think the odds of arctic air reaching Seattle in the next 16 days is right around 20%