Night Shift 6z GEFS Day 6 to 7.5. This is the critical point where everything comes down to the piggyback/ridge merger. We needed the ridge offshore to not weaken and retreat inland so quickly to achieve a successful ridge merger. If we do see that there's a much better shot at the ridge propping itself up more favorably to allow at least backdoor cold. If not, we see just a glancing blow like this run. That's the thing to watch see how this trends the next two days.

6z GEFS

I think models latched onto a real signal. Just a little too early. In a week we'll hopefully be seeing more snowy runs, maybe within 300 hours too...

Finishes strong though!!!

Good model trend this morning showing a slower progression of the trough and a northward trend of the surface low. 6z NAM 6z GFS 6z Euro CMC