The trends over the Pacific have been towards a more progressive wavetrain all Winter. The recent model flailing over the east coast is different and more related to the strength of our ridging over the west coast and the -NAO. Flailing that instantly becomes irrelevant at the foothills of the Rockies.

I think you may be right. Assuming the blast doesn’t go way far east, hasn’t the trend has been to dig each arctic intrusion further west each time? First it was east coast, then Midwest, now (potentially) plains/rockies. Hopefully next is us. Maybe I’m remembering wrong tho idk.

Here's the whole run of the 06Z GEFS. It's not that bad looking but there are places that could be improved

Jet just needs a biiiiiiiiiiiiiit longer to chill tf out. When it does it'll be sudden and the models will explode in the mid range. What does Rob say? Oh right. MBG

I think it's done, Rob. It's doing the thing it's done all season and all models are trending the way they have all season, in unison. I'm afraid any faint signal to the contrary in the ensemble spread is merely a product of poor data resolution and imperfect initialization/physics. The 20th of the month does begin though a WINDOW of opportunity lasting into February.