EPS is pretty cold Thanksgiving-onward. Slight SE ridge though. GFS ensembles are much colder. They have an ice box in the Upper Midwest pretty much after Thanksgiving.

SOI has been very positive the last 4 days. 21 Nov 2025 1011.94 1004.90 26.47 17.04 9.28 20 Nov 2025 1013.02 1005.20 31.43 16.68 9.16 19 Nov 2025 1013.90 1005.00 38.30 16.14 8.87 18 Nov 2025 1013.91 1006.65 27.87 15.23 8.46 30-day average is the highest since December 2022 (+17). Remember, Dec isn't a big ENSO-correlation month. Doesn't mean Jan-Feb won't be -PNA if the SOI stays strong. Coming pattern looks like January though, with below average temps in the NW with a mean ridge:

I was a student at WWU in Bellingham. We had seen less snow than most everyone, but on that Tuesday we got slammed. The forecast was for a chance of a few snow showers. It got cloudier and cloudier all morning. Turns out a little low pressure system was dropping down off the coast and spinning up snow. At about noon it began to snow. And it snowed hard all afternoon and evening. We must have had close to a foot of new snow by morning. It was clear by then, and the city was so peaceful and quiet since nobody was going anywhere. They canceled classes at WWU. We made it home to Anacortes that day as my future brother in law had bought chains for his car. But most students that weren't from Bellingham were stranded for the weekend. WWU had to scramble to accommodate students living on campus as it was supposed to be closed for the weekend and they didn't have food or staffed lined up for the weekend. Good times. Made it back by Sunday evening. It snowed briefly before warming up to rain and a great cold snap came to an end.

Yea, Thanksgiving weekend 1985 was great for snow. I remember trying to make it up NE 45th in the U-District in my 1977 Toyota Celica for the Apple Cup. My buddy kept telling me not to stop no matter what. We almost made it to the "Ave" but the car in front of us put their brakes on and sure enough, they were stuck and sliding backwards-fun times.

Bills don't have a very good defense. They lack at WR too.