Ok, well the original map posted that started the discussion was just probabilities.

The 2015 analog that was being bandied about earlier this month is looking shaky. That year turned very warm and dry in mid May (no rain that month after the 15th for SEA), and except for a very brief trough the beginning of the month, that pattern persisted all the way through June...and beyond, of course.

They have maps of both. Usually the "dark colors" are only +2F

You've been pointing out "busts" a lot when they have like 40-50% chance of it being above normal. A lot of those 3-4 week forecasts only span out to 33-50% probability. I'm saying they are conservative in that because they actually verify better than those probabilities.

The map shows probabilities of above/below normal, not specific anomalies...wasn't that the point you were just making?