I have been debating this same topic with Jared for literally 15 years. It is increasingly exhausting.
No matter how much quantitative evidence I provide him, he refuses to budge. That’s the thing about religion, though. It’s based on faith, not data.
Oct/Nov total precip versus DJF average temp.
Using Pearson method: Weak, non-statistically significant negative correlation. But better than October alone.
Spearman rank method: No correlation whatsoever.
Look at the line plot. There is so much variance, it is more likely to be random noise.
The track being shown would take it right over my sister's area. At least she's a bit inland.
This one looks to avoid the areas that were ravaged by flooding at least.