Cool weather advertised on both the GFS and ECMWF tonight. Good stuff!

That's why we need a 1968-69 situation and a Jan 1950 in there too. Christmas -Valentines Day thrill ride.

Well the warmest SSTs are near Japan. That's actually indicative of a +WPO pattern. But we have seen +WPO 5 of the last 6 Winters, and for the last 8 months. I did research showing it was about 53-54% due to flip in the Wintertime. It would be impressive if we get +WPO again.. would be a cold anomaly record over Siberia. But the point is the current orientation of SSTAs suggest the ridge is further west than that.. I do think that it could try to go northward, but the GOA ridge is actually something you see in +PDO. 13-14 was a -PDO that was transitioning during the Winter.. so some transition, some hold steady. With a growing La Nina, it's more likely it holds steady. West-based vs East-based ENSO also makes a difference for where the Pacific ridge sets up.. right now the subsurface cold pool is pretty far west, suggesting more of a west-based event.

The thing I'm curious about is what will Trump do about Robinson. Kamala's people are out there really trying to tie Trump to Robinson. Trump's natural instinct is to dig in but this may be a time where it would be wiser for him to start distancing himself.

I think a negative PDO suggests a persistent positive height anomaly over the GOA and or NE Pacific, which of course is favorable for cold in the NW.