06 GEFS -- pretty decent shift N from an ensemble - did 24 hr has not confuse with Clipper on Thursday-

Nope. Onto the Night Shift 6z GEFS

Gotta like heavy snow from a clipper in Iowa

DMX seems pretty excited for tomorrow's clipper. For the lucky ones that get under the narrow band at least -- I-80 special? More clouds move in tonight as a clipper system makes its way in from the PNW. Synoptic models have trended slightly northward and hi- res guidance has generally followed the same forecasted pathway. Still on track to have between 1 and 3 inches across the center of the state. There are other factors in play that could lead to higher snowfall amounts in localized areas: 1) For a few hours, forcing peaks right in the DGZ and it remains to be seen at what magnitude. Models vary between -10 and -20 microbars with the more negative number equating to more vertical motion. 2) Cross sections hint at conditional instability within the DGZ, generating spaced-out and folded theta-e surfaces. 3) Some of the CAMs have offered solutions of higher QPF paired with a more northern track; this would in turn lead to higher snowfall amounts from more water and higher snow ratios. The hi-res guidance also better shows the localized high end potential with the QPF. The HREF Localized Probability Matched Mean has a band of QPF between a quarter and half inch spanning east-west near the I-80 corridor. Have also kept with trends from the prior forecast in boosting snow ratios above climo due to the factors in the previous paragraph. This has introduced a narrow band of 3-4 inches into the snow total forecast. This better captures the upper threshold of amounts and will be better refined during the next forecast issuance, also affording a better opportunity for any headline considerations, if they`re needed.

Night Shift 6z GFS - Day 6 (4-run trend) trough is even further west on this run. Hmmm.... I still don't expect this run to end up being cold.