Day 10 (4-run trend)

Night Shift 6z GEFS Day 7 (4-run trend)

Good Morning and I agree about the amounts being overdone but still expecting some folks to get over a foot of snow. Storms strengthen and weaken and if you are in the correct place at the correct time then yes some amounts over a foot are possible. I live just south of Cincinnati and we do not see a lot of big snow makers. Most bigger storms have such a nice southeast ridge that we tend to have to much warm air above to give us a sleet fest which is terrible. I have no ideal but the amount of storms with over 6 inches in the last 30 years is probably in the single digits. This system has a chance and one reason is the cold air ahead of this system and we can thank the little clipper heading through this area late today and Friday that will help in keeping the cold air around when the storm arrives Sunday. Lucky the southeast ridge is not playing hard ball at the moment so I feel more confident than normal about a decent snowfall. Love seeing all the posts from different folks around the country

Yeah the operational is super progressive still, but fortunately as of right now it's all on its own with every other model/ensemble favoring ridging or cold pattern potentially.

GFS just goes back and forth from ridging to AL pattern over us. 2002-03 type fallspring.