EPS was going with a -PNA and now it's not so much. I expect this bias in seasonal models to correct as we get closer.. Aleutian ridges just haven't established/persisted this year. We probably need a favorable MJO for -PNA.

Slightly more pronounced SSW signal on the CMCE this morning than 24 hours ago. I think all but 1-2 members have a reversal. I will update this figure to plot the percent next time.

Very wet pattern down here the next two weeks. Probably some good rain/thunder with these next two systems. Depending on the pattern that could be wintry precip for the end of the month into early Dec.

I think for the southern Plains the Thanksgiving to early December period is our best shot of a deeply penetrating cold shot with snow or ice potential...and it could easily go off the rails but that is what I see right now. It seems like for a lot of December we may get into a pattern with periodic intrusions of cool but not necessarily deep arctic cold. That may change towards the last third of the month as we start to see more SSW influence and the MJO keeps plugging along. With that said the northern Plains will probably be colder with clipper systems. Same with New England.

Surprisingly there is still a group of cold members