GFS is way west now. Even the Olympic mountains are warm enough for rain.

Model breakdown 12/22/25 1:58 am Unfortunately the 00z runs last night are moving towards the windier ECMWF solution. I keep waiting for the ECMWF to back off and this just turns into a breezy, wet night. No big deal. That is NOT what is happening. The ECMWF in fact doubled down. The EPS(ECMWF Ensembles) are ratcheted things up as well. Due to this I am increasing the probabilities. Other ensemble guidance is beginning to show the same strong, compact low developing Tuesday evening near the northern California coast. It then strengthens Tuesday Night into Christmas Eve morning as it moves northward either up the Willamette Valley or right along the Oregon Coast. It appears there is a growing consensus for some kind of wind event/storm to occur Wednesday afternoon/Christmas Eve day. Exact details are still not nailed down yet. Is there still time for this possible wind storm to fall apart? Sure. However, with each passing model run and more consistency shown the clock is ticking for us to avoid this wind storm. I also want to mention there is a possibility now that on the high end of the model guidance we could see a significant, damaging wind storm perhaps rivaling 1995, 2006, and possibly Nov 1981. It has been a long time since PDX and the Willamette Valley has seen a significant southerly wind storm. I feel confident that if the model runs today do not back off, and the 00z runs tonight continue this theme that we will see the NWS and local TV mets start to talk about this potential in more bullish concerning terms. Anyhow, we still have several model runs to go, so let's see how this plays out. Gusts 50mph or greater probabilities (PDX, Willamette Valley) 00z GFS: 20%> 00z GEFS: 20%> 00z GEM: 0% 00z ICON: <30% 00z CMCE: <15% 00z NAM: <30% 00z ECMWF: 45%> 00z EPS: 45%> 00z EC-AIFS <40%

The King Euro is omniscient. All the other weaklings cave to it. But.......... I just still wish we could even see a few snowflakes for Christmas eve. Just anything with that winter flavor. Maybe a miracle could still happen but the window is shortening. But wind isn't too bad... Especially if the real deal hits by New Years.

2-4 hours of strong to damaging winds. It just looks like the other model camps are latching onto the EURO wind storm scenario.

Yeah ICON has a brief burst that isn’t all that powerful but is definitely noticeable.