Yeah, being warm is not what I would expect but we shall see. Since 1950 we have only had 3 supper strong Nino's. But I would think that a warm/dry winter would what we should expect in the next winter.

The overnight low here in my yard was 41, the 6:30AM temperature is 45 with cloudy skies. Today should see mild temperatures with highs reaching in the upper 60’s to low 70’s tonight’s low should stay in the mid 50’s with a slight chance of a shower. Then Saturday thru most of Tuesday should be summer like with highs in the upper 70’s to maybe the upper 80’s. Lows will be in the 50’s and 60’s. We should see some much-needed rain with chances of showers and maybe even a thunderstorm or two. It will cool down mid-week to once again below average temperatures. It should be noted that here in South West Lower Michigan it should now be safe to plant as we should be past the last freeze date. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 67/40 there was no rainfall, The highest wind gust was 31 MPH out of the W. The day had no significant weather events. For today the average H/L is 70/48 the record high of 91 was in 1991 the coldest high of 44 was in 1997 the record low of 34 was in 1920 the warmest low of 64 was in 1932 and 1900. The most rainfall of 4.15” was in 2001 that is the highest rainfall for any day in May. Last year the H/L was 85/59 and there was 0.41” of rainfall. Some weather history for May 15th 1968 A tornado touched down southwest of Anchorage, AK. It was the second of just three tornadoes reported in Alaska since 1950 (The Weather Channel) 1987 Unseasonably warm weather returned to the north central U.S. Seven cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Janestown, ND, with a reading of 96 degrees. Thunderstorms in Utah produced five inches of rain south of Bicknell. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Here in Michigan 2007, there were 40 severe wind and hail reports across Southeast Michigan including tennis ball size hail in Bad Axe and a measured 74 mph wind gust in Howell.

^^ End result is a warm rainstorm for much of the Pacific Northwest after a few days of setup, thickness values exceeding 564dam. Who needs the Pacific anyways

06z Euro AI advects Gulf of Mexico moisture into Spokane and all the way west to the Cascade crest. 55F+ dews retrograde in from MT and the Dakodas; leftover spillage from a previous GoM intrusion a few days prior retrograding around a sizeable cutoff low in the desert SW. I had this on an iceberg chart I made a month back, but to see it modeled is pretty cooky

ECMWF AIFS ensemble... the next trough could end up staying west which would favor warmer air and maybe convection.