Torchiest anomalies will probably be after February 1st this time, from the looks of it. Hard to get a more hostile analog pool for late season cold and snow than this. Background state will probably be hot garbage but it's not impossible that things line up right for a week or so at some point Dec 10 - January 20. This season's mountain snowpack was once in a generation level awful, I can't imagine there's a strong chance next season will be quite as bad. If it is, good luck to the ecosystem, lol.

The actual problem is strong/super Niños have been relatively rare thus far in the 21st century, so our brains revert to recency bias. We’ve only had 2 truly powerful Niños in the last 26+ years, and one of them (2023/24) developed via a conduit not observed since the 1970s, which rendered the global state unfavorable for a potent Aleutian Low Unlike 2023/24, the mean state will actually be favorable for a strong Aleutian Low this winter, similar to 2015/16 and most of the super Niños during the second half of the 21st century.

That’s a myth. 2015/16 had as potent an Aleutian Low as any Niño in the modern era (save 97/98).

Some variably-weighted pool of 1957/58, 1982/83, 1991/92, 2002/03, and 2015/16. I’m starting to like 1957/58 more, but the placement in the solar cycle gives me some pause for the QBO method I employ.

100% disagree. That event developed entirely differently (EPAC conduit), had opposite QBO, and opposite PMM/AMM dipoles. Couldn't think of a worse Niño analogy, actually.