OKwx2k4

Yes. I've always agreed with theories that tied geomagnetic, earthquake and volcano activity and other more subtle but very constant cycles to our sun. When you see N. Hem volcanoes wake up this close after solar max, it has one's thoughts rolling.... Oklahoma is an abstract place to study earthquake activity. I've found it pretty direct that it does ebb and flow with solar. Our temperature cycles going back the last century reflect this, along with 30-40 year PDO/AO cycles covering the other lager parts of the variance. The global temp drop that JB predicted many many years ago really did happen, as well, between 2008-09 and 2011-12. We had a bad (warm) winter after Sandy, and they sandbagged him. 2013-14 was the tag on the end of that crash. Bastardi is a smart man, he's just very extravagant in personality. Some call it a retraction, but I think it kinda makes what he teaches and does really stick well. Nobody at all could have predicted Hunga Tonga volcano or, going back to 2015-16, the QBO literally getting stuck and failing to propagate down, what you have is a bunch of folks who really need to accept defeat in most or all unproven theories and reinvest in getting 2 weeks of weather right.....first. Or being intelligent enough as a people to truly understand reality of why we have billion dollar disasters today when we had far fewer today.

Probably not straight, but a rebalance is inevitable. Crashing solar and other variables will only add to the odds. Seeing how long our side of the globe has been warm vs other areas is a key here as well. Heat up and smash the west pac full of warm water and it will be hard to keep our continent above average temps for long stretches like the last few years.

That's a compelling stat when taken just on one data point alone. Pretty heavily tilts the deck one way. If the N. Pac flips, I'm looking at 18-20 months straight of cooler than avg central conus. We'll see if that holds up.

One sure way to know La Niña is back..... Days of wind in the spring here and violent t-storms. A cold, wet south wind is another oddity. Outside of the La Niña influences, this is really ascended from a warmer start to a very typical spring month.

I thought 2010-11 was the top or second strongest, but I may be mistaken. Know it was the coldest the Pacific had been overall in decades at one point.

Yeah. When you have a cooperative north Pacific, it keeps the cold pushed over on our side.

Well, the AO's heart is about to skip a beat.... Will be interesting to see how this month runs out now. A little cold slap in the face on its way out is looking likely.

If we go back to a disconfigured La Niña structure like 2022, you may be thankful for any rain you get in before summer.

It appears ol March is trying to go out with a roar around here. Looking like it won't be the last round of storms on my side of the state for the month. Northwest Arkansas got rocked and lot of power outages were reported.

Upper ocean anomalies have tanked like a rock in the last 3 months from their peak in December. Atmospherically we favor a Niña base state already and the N. Pac is in alignment with this as well. Will be interesting if we can see a full-scale Niña with a cold pdo in place to go with. We really just exited the most non-Niño of all the strong ones I can remember, so this Niña will have my interest.

Yeah. Been awol for a few, but I have saw that. Its a dead on pipeline almost on a map.

What is incredible is seeing the virtually stable North Pacific in contrast to the equator.

It appears it won't be much longer til the end of 2023-24s Nino episode. What a 7 day change.

Really any last semblance of winter is gone now here. I see the signs of real spring showing everywhere. It's wonderful. Had a bit of everything this month here.

I agree with this. More cold air masses movement due to warmth at mid and high latitudes, but trade offs are global moisture transport decreasing because colder air, even at the equator, holds less moisture.