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Temperatures this morning across Chester County were as low as 50 degrees at Warwick Township. We should see sun this AM with clouds increasing and some showers and thunderstorms arriving from the southwest around the 5pm hour or so from west to east. After the showers tonight we have a great stretch of weather right through the upcoming weekend. Temps start below normal and end up near to above normal by early next week. Chester County wide records for today: High 95 degrees at Phoenixville (1941) / Low 32 degrees (this is the latest freezing observation on record in Chester County) at Phoenixville (1936) / Rain 3.25" also at Phoenixville (1990)

Yeah... probably just going to stay wet and cold. Wouldn't really surprise me too much.

Are we allowed one week of eastern troughing? Just one? I’m not asking for much.

The only place that really torched hard was the upper midwest into the northern plains. The epicenter was around Madison, WI. Most other areas saw temperatures comparable to an average summer today.

Ah..... Don't have access to the 06z

Looks like multiple major heat spikes, which was a theme that summer across the country. But also periodic cool downs which kept the anomalies from being too crazy most places.

Yeah, but here's today's 6z GEFS for 8 days out compared to yesterday's.

What a great looking run right. I’d love to see things play out that way, but it’s hard to imagine us getting off that easy.

I completely forgot June 1988 ran a -2°F departure here. There was actually some legitimate troughing and storminess the first half of the month. A high of 62°F on 6/9! Looks like the Tim switch flipped on 2nd half of the month, convection/precip immediately shut down and death ensued.

Which one? The only meteogram I posted was the GEFS. 06Z ECMWF shows 69 on Saturday. And that is only because the dying front never makes it inland on this run. The 00Z run showed more clouds in the afternoon.

Some refreshing light rain and drizzle out there this morning. Current temp is 50 which is the low for the day so far. Have picked up .07” on the day so far.

Yeah, but the Euro itself has hardly waivered. The 00z was actually cooler than yesterday's 12z. Also that meteogram looks really weird? Maybe Tidbits' resolution is too low for the Euro, but 5pm temps generously struggle to reach 65F. That's with decreasing clouds, so maybe it's a 7pm high.

06Z GFS is definitely not in agreement with its ensemble mean for later next week... but doesn't mean its wrong.

The heap of rubbish that sits over the ocean this time of year has deepened again.

Nice call on the jet extension by @Phil. He was calling for one around this time a couple weeks back. And voila

It was definitely looking cooler and wetter for the last couple of days even on the ECMWF. Just yesterday you mentioned the models showing more significant rain in that period. And could still go back as its all related to how far inland that dying front makes it.

I remember 2020 was bad in July specifically, but other months were relatively vanilla by summer standards. It wasn’t an overly intense heat, it just refused to take a break, even for 1 day.

That was....always the case? I don't think that's waivered at all. Some waffling in QPF and how organized that system is. But the Euro also has more than one and a half inches of rain Sunday night.

FWIW... the 06Z GEFS still shows the ridge building in starting Wednesday like the EPS.

Back down to 60 now... it was 65 when we were out there on Mother's Day weekend. But it warms up fast. If the EPS is right over the next 2 weeks it will be around 70 by the middle of June.

Hopefully you jinxed it here! The GFS randomly throws out 110 degree runs and then has runs with no warmth at all. The GFS has had no chance recently when it disagrees with the EPS... it always caves. But watch this will be the time when a 06Z GFS run leads the way with the way.

In the real short range the ECMWF now shows close to 70 on Saturday and washes out that little system.

06z GFS

Always want those improvements in the short and mid range!

It looks like 2020 may have been similar in your area, but 2016 was toasty throughout the South as well as the Northeast, while 2020 was mainly the Northeast.