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Go Cubs! Lifelong Cubs fan myself. Excited and nervous already for this Wednesday. Beat the Pirates and then how sweet it would be to beat the Cards!

So my paper that I wrote earlier this year on the fog climatology, distribution, and frequency for Northern Utah was officially accepted by the American Geophysical Union last week. I am not sure when it will be printed but its fun to officially have a paper under my name.

I agree. I'd like better data on the 19th century IO domain, though, considering the strong correlation between low-freq IO forcing and wave coherence in the stratosphere. Certainly it appeared to play a role in preventing what should have been a major SSW/-NAM last January/February through destructive wave interference. In fact, I'd argue that the IO is the most underrated player in seasonal forecasting today. It influences W/H intensity and spread ratio, hence poleward eddy flux and mass transport imbalance.

Yeah, I've certainly noticed, there have also been substantial low frequency changes in the EP zonal SST gradient that are contributing... The overall forcing & SST distribution in this NINO is certainly more analogous to 1877-78 & 1982-83 than 1997-98. The plethora of TC activity in the east-central deep tropical Atlantic (spurred in large part by a sudden & rather unusual +AMM) spike as well as a year of "preconditioning" wrt to ENSO (i.e. warm neutral-weak NINO up to a year preceding the development of an extraordinary NINO) gives this event some interesting similarities to the 19th century "Super" El Ninos (1877-78 & 1888-89) as opposed to 1982-83 & 1997-98, IMO. The 19th century Super NINOs also provide a stronger analog for solar background (esp. @ inter-multidecadal timescales)...

Those cool nights towards the end of the month brought Shawnigan lake down to -1.8F for the month. Tied with 2007 for the coolest September in the last 19 years (1996).

To me, the record breaking Niño4 anomaly is probably the most impressive, considering the basinwide nature of this event. The fact that low-middle stagnant freq forcing has been so dateline-oriented is also somewhat unique for a Niño of this amplitude.

Could you image 107 inches at your place? I recently purchased flood insurance even though I am on a hilltop. The city repaved the road I live on and excessive water can wash up to my house. I remember the winter of 2005; rain total at my station was 54" [probably the all time record for the area].

Yeah, based on a preliminary estimate of Reynolds OISSTv2, even if we assume no intensification of this El Nino thru the end of October (which is fairly unlikely at this juncture) the ONI in OISSTv2, Kaplan, HADISST, & COBE (I threw these datasets into a conglomerate because their last several ONI values have been within ~.05-.1C of one another & they seem to be handling the smaller-scale features of the TP SST field quite well) will reach ~+2.25C in ASO. If this indeed comes to fruition, it would stand as a new record in the observational era, even ousting 1877-78. Yikes...

I think that you can't do your job right if you don't know what is going on underneath it all.

Digital is generally more accurate and trust me, worth having to avoid going outside in the bitter cold in the winter, or at night. Anyway something like this will be just fine if all you want is temperature: http://store.oregonscientific.com/us/thermometer-with-led-ice-alert-weather-100-in-silver.html If you want to add precip this would work: http://store.oregonscientific.com/us/wireless-rain-gauge-with-outdoor-temperature-and-10-day-memory.html Then you can look at davis here: http://www.ambientweather.com/west3.html

I think calculus is beautiful. It is mind-expanding. I wonder if that's why it is required for science majors, because I've known working scientists -- one a cutting-edge expert in her field -- and they agree that one does not use calculus once out in the "working" science world. Computers do all that work.

Isn't that Opid site right in the vacinity of where the CA 24hr rainfall record was recorded? I'm at 1.53" Here's the high totals from south & east of the LA area, from SD NWS. 1. YUCAIPA RIDGE 2.99 9020 2. DEER CREEK DAM 1.65 2917 3. RUNNING SPRINGS PARK 1.41 5440 4. SMUGGLERS GULCH 1.38 74 5. CEDAR GLEN 1.38 5317 6. LYTLE CREEK CANYON 1.37 3060 7. CREST PARK 1.34 5624 8. MANZANITA FLATS 1.34 3920 9. MILL CREEK EAST 1.27 4420 10.RAINBOW CAMP 1.14 1553

Opids is a boy scout camp directly above Pasadena at 3500'. OPIDS CAMP........................ 1.84 SAN ANTONIO DAM................... 1.00 MT BALDY.......................... 0.98 WEST FORK HELIPORT................ 0.98 SANTA ANITA DAM................... 0.94 CRYSTAL LAKE...................... 0.83 TANBARK........................... 0.73 INSPIRATION POINT................. 0.70 SIERRA MADRE...................... 0.52 CHILAO............................ 0.47 MILL CREEK SUMMIT................. 0.38 SAN GABRIEL DAM................... 0.35

The cut-off SLP that is spinning in So Cal this morning has dropped some early season snows in the mountains just north of Los Angeles in the Angeles National Forest... This system may be caught up in the transitioning new LRC pattern. Won't know till sometime in late November if this is part of the new 2015-16 cycle.

A healthy looking ridge pops next Monday giving us a good shot at an 80F+ temp this month... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015100500/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_9.png Hopefully the Cubbies will be playing the Cardinals in the 1st round of the Playoffs and Game 3 would be at Wrigley Field. Summer time warmth is going to attract tons of crowds near Wrigley. After that, the pattern begins to transition into a cooler one. AO is forecast to tank and the Alaskan ridge builds back in. An above normal snow cover in the regions up north should allow some significant cold fronts to head our way towards mid month. GFS/EURO Ensembles starting to come together Day 8-10.

This is hot off the presses from Reynolds OISSTv2. These ONI values are absolutely insane, won't take much for this event to be classified as a "Super" El Nino (3 successive tri-monthlies @ or above +2C). The numbers from COBE SST, Kaplan, & HADISST are liable to be fairly similar... http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Reynolds-OISSTv2-ONI-2000-JAS-2015-1024x728.png Here's IOCADSv2.5, which not surprisingly remains the low outlier. http://weatheradvance.com/home/weather/weatheradvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/IOCADSv2.5-ONI-1990-JAS-2015-895x1024.png

I agree, and most do, with what iFred said but I will expand. If you want a good weather station with many variables Davis is the way to go, anything else is a waste of money, period. In most cases the stuff you get from Lacrosse or Oregon Scientific is simply not very accurate. If you want just temperature I think other brands are ok and even smart. You can also get a good rain gauge for 40-50 bucks and that's fine. If you want wind I would again say go with Davis.

I like you. Welcome to the forum. Northern New Mexico has an awesome climate.

Welcome to the mountain west! This should be a fun winter for you with above normal snowfall and cold weather. I moved to Utah from Oregon. We sometimes get some long stretches of boring weather but overall there are many more fun events here than in the PNW, or especially So. Cal. Anyway, looking forward to your updates. We will be getting some showers tomorrow evening and Tuesday.

This month has been much improved. Just annoying that it will ultimately end up above average despite some really decent cool patterns scattered throughout. It has been 19 months since PDX saw a below average monthly anomaly now. That is insane.