I still think the models could flip pretty dramatically in the next day or two. That Aleutian block is going to be strong and the models hate those.

There was actually a pretty chilly trough being shown for the 7th or so not that long ago.

ENSO has been a real puzzler so far. We had a clearly pro Nina subsurface profile and yet the atmosphere just hasn't latched on. The SOI is still a little bit negative, and Nino 3.4 is right around zero. I guess it's fine. Almost no chance of a Nino and neutral winters can be very good for us. I'm just surprised is all.

Meanwhile, today was pretty tolerable here. 81/57 spread, a little warmer than forecast but that’s par for the course. Partly cloudy through early afternoon with clouds thickening up afterward. Some neat convective looking mid level clouds complete with some mammatus this afternoon. Temps peaked early before falling into the 70s with some light rain at times. Had some big fat raindrops falling about an hour before sunset with a temp of 72. Currently partly to mostly cloudy and 63 out there.

Don't even need to go that far. It's too late to replace him on the Wisconsin (they've already printed the absentee ballots), North Carolina (deadline to change registry was in March) and Nevada (they can only add additional names)ballots.