Here ya go from his last story. Looks like 44 days There is an increasing probability of a major winters storm around January 5th to 10th as the LRC comes into focus. Let’s take a look: The weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere has two main phases of this year’s LRC. Phase 1 is in motion now and it is going to transition into Phase 2 by around January 10th. Before this transition happens, a series of storm systems will affect the United States with one of the stronger ones possible around January 7th. Let me show you the first exhibit of this year’s LRC by looking at cycles 1, 2, and 3. Watch today’s video as I showcase the three cycles, and then I will continue with the explanation below: The 500 mb level of the atmosphere is around half way up in weight. The top of the atmosphere has no weight at all, and the surface, where we all live, has around 1013.25 mb of pressure on us at all times, give or take a bit when a storm with low pressure moves across or a high pressure area moves in. This half way point is around 18,000 feet above us. The winds blow parallel to these height lines as you can see below: This first map above, and the one below, shows the flow on October 7, 2024, or right at the very beginning of this year’s LRC. I labeled some of the big features from #1 to #4 showing three troughs/upper lows, and one big ridge. The map above shows October 7th, and then this map below shows that the weather pattern has cycled back through on November 20th. And, then the following map shows a forecast of the weather pattern for around January 2nd, three to five days before the potential major winter storm forms. Compare the last three maps showing October 7, November 20, and the forecast for January 2. It’s the first, “you can’t make this up” revelations of the season. What happens a few days later is going to be fascinating to watch unfold. That feature #1 on the January 2, 2025 forecast, is predicted to ride in and potentially interact with some Arctic air. This will potentially create the conditions favorable for this Major Winter Storm as shown below: The maps may show the storm, or some may not show this developing winter storm. We now know enough about this year’s LRC to predict that there is a 90% probability a Major Winter Storm will form. What is the probability you will see snow from this storm; thunderstorms from this storm; or get missed entirely by this storm? For Kansas City, I put the probability at 50% that this storm will impact your local area. We will learn a lot more in the coming days.

0z Euro AI is not backing down at all...last 16 runs...consistency anyone??? About as good as it can get...

I think the period between 1/3 - 1/6 is the beginning of LRC cycle #3...the end of the SW Flow pattern right now and series of cutters shows me that the LRC cycle #2 is ending. What stands out to me is back on 11/16 - 11/30 a Massive West-Based Greenland Block formed and migrated towards a Hudson Bay Bock. Coincidentally, today, on 12/28 a HUGE West-Basted Greenland Block forms outta nowhere and the NAO begins to head (-) which is right around 42-43 days. I remember vividly a a PAC Clipper that raced along the U.S./Canadian border and on 10/8 - 10/9 it got blocked up over Southern Ontario for a few days. Look what happens on Jan 2nd-4th??? IMHO, I think its the NYE storm that is the beginning of the LRC cycle #3 and I wonder what Gary Lezak thinks about this scenario. I have yet to hear his commitment to a cycle length this year. Did he say anything?

I have a pretty shocking update! It’s raining here again!

EURO op has hit the eggnog too much. If it floats your boat, that’s fine. But two main problems: 1. No ensemble support; 2. Even if it was believable, no SE ridge as the pattern looks bizarre but comparatively progressive.