850s plume in the LR is an _actual crapshoot_

Big waffle back on the GEFS. But you have to acknowledge, this is still a pretty stout -PNA signal at 12+ days out. Something I've noticed with the waffling today. Hardly any ensemble means outright cancel the pattern change. I think the main issue is how amplified the wavetrain gets based on the strength of the Scandinavian high in the 6-10 day range. The run to run waffling is probably due to some inflection point in the mid-long range that Phil could educate us about; but whatever it is, that timeframe is important. Notably, for days consecutively now, the ensemble mean has advertised AK ridging around 1/20. What we've been stressing out about is the strength of that still existing signal that never left. I think we'll be okay, so long as the fundamental structure of the pattern doesn't collapse into more of a progressive nature in the ensemble means, like what we saw in December. What we might be seeing here is a poorly handled low or shortwave in the Atlantic ahead of the Scandi ridge, or some polar lobe shenanigans.

Mammoth step back on 6z GEFS. Basically back to square 1.

6z GEFS was better for Oklahoma and Missouri.