If it’s going to happen it’ll be in that late-Jan to mid-Feb window, IMO. Tropical forcing becomes more hostile again later in Feb into Mar, so barring last minute bliss via a dynamic final warming I think we’ll have the verdict on winter very soon.

00z Euro AI Day 5 (4-run trend)

This is the correct take. NOAA-CPC is as wrong about ENSO as they were with their winter outlook.

How do you think the winter is going to go from here on out in the PNW?

La Niña conditions are currently present. It won’t reach official La Niña criteria, though.