I'll tap on Australia does have a different definition of a Nina being a 1 month average of -0.8C or lower. Their model gives it a 13.1% chance and that includes the fact that the last weekly being -0.81 (Jan 5). They were also less bullish on the Nina in general when making my October forecast and their model average was about -0.75C, which is where I think this will end up. It led me to put 3/5 October top analogs as ENSO neutral.

The end of the AIFS is mouth watering to say the least. The Graphcast shows a similar pattern around day 10. Pretty exciting. It turns pretty cold early next week and could easily stay below normal for a good long time.

15 minutes until Night Shift 6z GFS!

This event is very much up in the air, but it's gonna be really tough.

I did and that is promising. Thanks