By the way EPS weeklies are very cold the back half of December into early January. I think this is when sustained winter will develop with the best snow chances.

^Seems to be trending to stay strong, longer too. Nov - Feb in the last 3 years, if this warming happens, we'll be batting 9-0 with the QBO phase.

Here is tonight's CMCE 10 hPa zonal wind forecast. More members showing a SSW than yesterday, with at least a week showing near or below wind reversal conditions.

This is probably the most optimistic I've been since 18-19 (that didn't end up being a great Winter though). Another interesting thing is the Aleutian ridge is having trouble establishing and persisting, all year. Since June 2023, 21/29 months have been +PNA, and since the El Nino ended 12/19 months have been +PNA. I believe something changed in the Pacific base-state pattern during the 23-24 Strong Nino. We could see -PNA this Winter, but it's not likely to be a persistent pattern like it had been 2018-2024, unless it just kind of comes out nowhere.