The AI Euro is brutal with the cold. The 06z run has below zero highs and 15-20 below zero lows across Iowa.

My area got the high end of the model precip range last night. I finished with 0.48". The far north and northeast side of the city got 0.60-0.90". There was also some good thunder, which is always nice in November.

Some weather history for November 18th 1986 - The first of two successive snowstorms struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced up to 20 inches of snow in southern New Hampshire. Two days later a second storm produced up to 30 inches of snow in northern Maine. (Storm Data) 1989- A second surge of arctic air brought record cold to parts of the north central U.S. Eleven cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Rochester MN with a reading of 4 degrees below zero. Strong winds ushering the arctic air into the north central U.S. produced squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals in northern Ohio ranged up to twenty inches in Ashatabula County and Geauga County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Yes, I am back from our trip but I came back with a cold so I am not feeling the best. When we left on November 4th there were still a lot of leaves on the trees, well with the snow and cold that happened that is not so much the case now and I have a lot of leaves to rake not or wait until spring to do it. We now are past the half way point of November 2025. For Grand Rapids the first 17 days of November have had a mean temperature of 41.0 that is -1.0 below average there has been a total of just 0.41” of precipitation that is a departure of -1.46” there has been 1.1” of snowfall that is a departure of -1.6” so far. At the current time the temperature is 33 and there is some very light rain/snow mix falling. Detailed Forecast for Grand Rapids Today Rain showers and snow showers likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet before 2pm, then a chance of snow showers between 2pm and 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total daytime snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tonight A slight chance of showers between 7pm and 8pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 25. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Increasing clouds, with a high near 41. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph. Wednesday Night A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind. Thursday A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Calm wind becoming south southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Thursday Night A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.

Pretty good confidence on getting cold in my mind, but far from known whether we get big cold or get any snow yet.

I made this too for the SSW. You can see it peaks in the 10 hPa layer but extends from about 3 to 20 hPa. There are two surges at least on the 00z GFS shown here.