Stuff has behaved in the LOT cwa so far. Definitely had some concern about how the afternoon (say 12-6 pm) was going to go. Haven't really dug into it much, but perhaps just ended up a little short on instability. It can be a very fine line between not having enough instability and having enough for a bunch of low-topped tornadic cells. We'll see how things go later on.
The March pattern with a +NAO leading to ridge in the SW precedes a lot of El Nino's.
14-15 was an analog.. led to 2015-2016 Super Nino. Actually that was the #2 year on record after this year.