Recency bias. Just posting facts. Both things can be true. Just providing context. Prisoners of the moment. UHI. Colder than its period-of-record average May in 2024 at OLM. Models still disagree and the longer range could go either way. Context.

It's about to rain again. Chill. Looking at your post history, it's like an incessant, one note tune for the past couple months. As it was last year at the same time. We get it.

Another ECMWF run that shows wall-to-wall sun and temps in the mid 70s for the holiday weekend under very weak troughing aloft.

Part of the issue is that these "arbitrary" warmest/driest x period stats are just ridiculously easy to come by now. They're literally happening almost every year here now across different points in the warm season. Maybe, just maybe, if it actually rained a bit more and stayed a little cooler then I wouldn't post them because they wouldn't be possible? Crazy thought I know.

CMC and Euro AI continue to look pretty different at day 10...as you said before, GFS is probably cutting off that second ULL too much as it tends to in this range.