Many East Coast weenies are in for a rude awakening as to how insanely torchy and stagnant these super Niño winters can be. I see people referencing 2023/24 as a floor…haha. That winter isn’t even in the same ballbark w/rt the canonical expression, as a significant IPWP forcing element was retained. There will be substantially less cold to draw from this year, the pattern probably won’t even be comparable. At least in strong La Niña winters there is actual Arctic air in Canada resulting in legitimate cold shots, even if brief/snowless. In Super Niño winters there is basically nothing to draw from up north. The airmasses are essentially all marginal/home grown. Henceforth you will often have very little in the way of interesting weather to speak of during the first third of winter out here. And even thereafter, when the atmosphere has cooled enough, snowfall chances still hinge on the amplitude of the STJ and timing of waves being just right to score marginal dumps of snow via dynamic cooling in what is still (usually) a warmer than average in-situ airmass. I predict there will be a lot of Jim-esque meltdowns on X this winter. Hopefully confined to the NYC/New England region but very possible it extends to my region too. I have low expectations going into this one.

Sky is quite smokey this afternoon and it smells like smoke.

I'm predicting that much of September will be cool/wet, then we get an Indian Summer toward the end of the month into October. Sept: -1.5F, +2.00" Oct: +2.0", -0.50", 1-4 days at/above 80F

Nobody on here, including myself, appears to think this summer was anything more than moderately warm in historic terms. I've already remarked within the last week even that it ranks somewhere in the middle of post-2012 warm seasons for me right now. On the other hand you do seem to be trying to construct a narrative that something apparently changed in 2024 and that the long term trend towards rapid warming here has been meaningfully disrupted. You're certainly free to correct me on that if I'm mistaken. If so that's a mighty bold theory to be putting out there following the 4th warmest running 12 months on record at SEA. Most of the region hasn't seen a legitimately cooler than average month in a year and a half.

Probably a wetter (and warmer) winter for the lowlands relative to last winter, will probably see fewer of those stagnant inversion patterns and at least a couple old school Pineapple Express regimes during peaks in STJ amplitude/latitude (when intraseasonal elements in the system state evacuate AAM poleward from the tropics). Going to be a *LOT* of torching over the northern half of the CONUS this winter. Canada will be largely devoid of Arctic air (save maybe Baffin Island/Archipelago region, and northern AK in Nov/early Dec) as the NPAC jet blasts it away. The SE US cold pool might build gradually thru the winter as what minuscule amount of grown continental air present leaks into the region from the north (where it still registers as a positive departure). And CA/SW US probably runs a cool departure thanks to relative storminess. But absent a freak SSWE during the first half of winter (vertically integrated wave-2/split variety) this winter is a relatively high confidence forecast.