weatherfan2012

this was a strange El nino Alot of research I think will be look at it but my bet is the pacific had a play with a over all La nina background state which may have interruped the normal El nino tendaceys.

What interesting is sort term El nino has a warming effect long term El nino system has a cooling tendency.Same with La nina sort term it has a leveling off cooling effect but long term in a La nina system it tends to go along with warming cycles climate as oppose to cooling cycles.

This winter has been borning not only on the lack of snow but the lack of wind events which is unusal for La ninas as it one thing we do well in with La ninas are big wind events.

Then March we will likey have our biggest snow event of the winter I can very much see that happening as well to add to the Joke of winter 2022-2023.I mean lets be honest this winter is about as comerica as it can get.

As bad as it is at least the northeast is suffering through it as well and it not just our suffering,

This would be the classic winter where we get our biggest storm in March it just has that feel to it.

The one good thing is next winter can not get any worse as this is about as worse rock bottom as you can get.so we can only go up after this debacle over the next few years.

Agreed I think the truth is no matter how many ids one has mother nature will still kick you in the but at times and this winter has kicked many.Also it human nature to not like to be wrong and alot of times we can be stubborn in admitting that we were wrong lol.I also think there is still many things in the climate system that we don't really know and it those unknowns alot of times that screws up forecasted ideas.which will then leave us saying yep back to the drawing board again ☺.I think with LC he been going by models which has clearly been rushing things with the enso and he adminted the delays of the models has frustrated him.I think your idea Phil is what makes the most sense a slower trainstion.

Larry Cosgrove has been ending La nina since the summer those does admints it been slower.

Larry Cosgrove is doing that still going with El nino in the summer.He was ending La nina this winter those like Larry but he clearly been off this winter after he had one of the best forecasting calls in the summer and hurricane season.

As good as a promet Larry Cosgrove is he really got burned by his consistent idea of La nina going away and El nino starting.I still wonder what he saw back in the summer and fall that made him go in that drection .He is still going with the El nino coming on this summer.

Larry Cosgrove wrote this on his Weather America newsletter last night

The truth promets need to call for a warmer less snower winter then we will get hammered as there calls for cold snowy winters have not been to good.

Interisting that Larry Cosgrove and Justin Berk both went cold snowy herr for febuary which gos against the La nina climo but then again they both went for the not typical La nina winter idea so we will see.

Very possable it has to be frustrating to be a promet trying to sort this all out with models constantly showing El nino only to be delayed I think that's what burned Cosgrove he went with Data ending la nina to soon.