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Great camping weather the past few days. We spent most our time in the Lake Ollalie area. Only down side was Mt. Hood was somewhat obscured by smoke/haze. Jefferson, however, was looking great.

00z GFS Ensemble wants to keep us below average through the rest of the month. Looking like our first below average month in quite sometime. Fall has officially arrived!

For us in Utah our storm begins tomorrow. First wave lifts north tomorrow morning through the area. Chance we could see some storms fire along that boundary. Behind it we will see subsidence and some clouds with the monsoonal moisture so tomorrow afternoon may be quieter. However good upper level dynamics such as the PV anomaly and diffluence should keep the risk of showers present. Approaching trough with strong moisture and temperature gradient Tuesday should kick of more rain and storms by the afternoon. This looks better organized than what we see Monday. Continued upper level support will be present. Finally Wednesday we see a strong cold front (frontogenic) along with the coldest air aloft and deep moisture convergence along the front. This one will be the strongest of them all with heavy rain and thunderstorms likely as the front plows through. Some models are keeping yet another trailing feature for Thursday so we will see. Storm total: .5-1.5" areawide. Highs in the low 60s Wednesday with lows in the 40s.

The darker the better. After several years of softcore Yuma, I am ready for some gloom and floods. We are due.

My issue was more with the glass full of piss. It's hard to take your calls for less reactionary vitriol seriously when you are guilty of doing it yourself. Maybe it's just me. I have always had an issue with hypocritical "authority" figures.

I for one can't wait for the low clouds ad daily rain to begin in earnest.

In other news, the 12z ECMWF looks downright chilly in the extended with 850mb temps hovering near 0c. This month could end up being PDX's largest negative departure since February 2014.

Summer is over, there's nothing in the modeling that suggests another warm ridging episode the rest of September. Ensemble composites are suggestive of mean troughing along the west coast and in the Gulf of Alaska through the next 2 weeks. I'm waiting to hear Jesse's screams of delight emanating from atop Bull Mountain. Jesse, please keep it down after 10 pm, I gotta work early tomorrow.

Maybe I can get my department to do a study on it.